How much time to prepare before economic collapse??

Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Ray Phillips on December 5, 2008 at 10:16pm

Makes me long for a warm sunny beach, with a cold beer in one hand - and a cold beer in the other!

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Permalink Reply by American in the D.R. on December 6, 2008 at 12:46pm

..... I'm still here... got it alll.... come on down. :~) We will have no problem changing your tune.

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Permalink Reply by American in the D.R. on December 6, 2008 at 1:02pm

I liked it too Larry. ADR

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Permalink Reply by Todd McKissick on December 5, 2008 at 11:10am

It occured to me that this group is likely not privey to the industry news that I get flooding my inbox daily. I thought you might enjoy seeing a snippet of what's going on in the real energy world.

Headlines from Energy Central Weekly (Looked like a better cross section than today's daily version - Membership reqd)
ERCOT is 100 percent over budget on revamp of Texas electric grid
Nov 27 - McClatchy-Tribune Regional News - Jim Fuquay Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Texas
The operator of the state's largest electricity grid said it is more than 100 percent over budget and two years behind schedule on its ongoing program to modernize the transmission system.

White House, EPA approve changes to mining buffer zone rule Dec 2 - McClatchy-Tribune Regional News - Ken Ward Jr. The Charleston Gazette, W.Va.
The White House and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency signed off Tuesday on plans to revoke parts of a key water quality rule that could have been used to limit the burial of streams by mountaintop removal coal mining operations.

Southern California Edison Completes First of Its Major Commercial Rooftop Solar Installations ROSEMEAD, Calif., Dec 01, 2008 -- BUSINESS WIRE
Southern California Edison (SCE) today announced completion of the first of its proposed 150 solar photovoltaic installations on Southern California commercial rooftops.


TXU successor settles with PUC over market manipulation Nov 27 - McClatchy-Tribune Regional News - Elizabeth Souder The Dallas Morning News
Energy Future Holdings' power generation business agreed to pay $15 million to settle a $210 million penalty after regulators accused the company of manipulating the wholesale power market.

BPU faces heavy fines for pollution Nov 26 - McClatchy-Tribune Regional News - Karen Dillon The Kansas City Star, Mo.
The troubled Kansas City, Kan., Board of Public Utilities is facing millions of dollars in fines for violating federal clean air laws, a federal spokesman said Wednesday.

EDF Proposes to Acquire 50% of Constellation Energy's Nuclear Generation and Operation Business for $4.5 Billion Dec 03 - PRNewswire-FirstCall
Electricite de France S.A. ("EDF") today announced that, through its subsidiary EDF International, it has sent a letter to the Board of Directors of Constellation Energy proposing to acquire a 50% ownership interest in Constellation's nuclear generation and operation business for $4.5 billion.

ISO New England Projects Adequate Power Supplies to Meet Winter Electricity Demand HOLYOKE, Mass., Dec 04, 2008 -- BUSINESS WIRE
New England will have the resources needed to meet demand for electricity in the six-state region this winter, according to ISO New England Inc., the operator of the region's bulk power system and wholesale electricity markets.

PJM Board Authorizes $1.6 Billion in Transmission Additions, Upgrades VALLEY FORGE, Pa., Dec. 4 /PRNewswire/
The PJM Interconnection Board has approved $1.6 billion in electric transmission systems additions and upgrades for the grid that serves 51 million people in 13 states and the District of Columbia.

$6B power plant proposed for Surry: About 2,200 people would be employed during construction of the coal-fired plant that could be in operation by 2016 Dec 3 - McClatchy-Tribune Regional News - Peter Frost Daily Press, Newport News, Va.
Old Dominion Electric Cooperative is proposing to build a $6 billion coal- and biomass-fired power plant on 1,600 acres in Surry County, the nonprofit announced Tuesday.

FERC Approves Prairie Wind Transmission Request for Key Rate Components in New Ultra-High Capacity Line Project Dec 04 - MARKET WIRE
Prairie Wind Transmission LLC today announced that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has unanimously approved its request for key rate components in its proposal to build a 230-mile, 765-kilovolt (kV) transmission line extending from the Wichita area west to the Dodge City area and south-southwest to the Kansas-Oklahoma border from Medicine Lodge.

AEP to Pursue Development of Transmission Superhighway to Transport Renewable Energy Across the Upper Midwest COLUMBUS, Ohio, Dec. 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/
American Electric Power is evaluating the feasibility of building a multi-state, extra-high voltage transmission project across the Upper Midwest to support the development of renewable energy.

NRG Energy, Inc. Plans 30 MW Biomass Project at Its Montville Generating Station in Connecticut PRINCETON, N.J., Dec 03, 2008 -- BUSINESS WIRE
NRG Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NRG) is developing a new biomass project at its Montville Generating Station in Uncasville, CT. NRG is enhancing one of the station's existing units to use biomass as a fuel source for 30 megawatts (MW) of the unit's 82-MW generating capacity.

Scotland Offers $15 Million for Viable Wave or Tidal Technologies EERE Network News - 12/3/08
The Scottish Government announced details last night about the Saltire Prize, a $15 million technology prize that will be awarded to the team that successfully demonstrates the best commercially viable wave or tidal energy technology capable of powering thousands of homes.

TVA Issues RFP for Renewable, Clean Energy Power Supply KNOXVILLE, Tenn., Dec. 2 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/
The Tennessee Valley Authority is requesting proposals to supply up to 2,000 megawatts of power generation from renewable and clean energy sources to TVA by June 1, 2011.

Southern California Adds Nearly 450 MW of Peak Power to Keep Lights On and Cut Dependence on Imported Electricity ORLANDO, Fla., Dec 02, 2008 -- BUSINESS WIRE
Responding to California's growing peak energy demands, GE Energy will provide its high-efficiency, low-emission LM6000 aeroderivative gas turbines for four projects. These turbines will play a critical role in helping the region keep pace with increasing power demand.

Iredell Transmission Eyes 10,000 Megawatt-Hour Mark STATESVILLE, N.C., Nov. 26 /PRNewswire/
Iredell Transmission LLC, which began operation of its landfill gas-to-electricity project at the Iredell County Landfill in August, expects to produce its 10,000th megawatt hour of electricity by the end of 2008, DTE Biomass Energy officials said today.

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Permalink Reply by moomesa on December 5, 2008 at 12:15pm

Good morning all,

Here is a lecture I happened upon this morning and while I must say that I don’t agree with a lot of the solutions proposed, simply because they would lead to more corruption and reeks slightly of globalization, the body of the lecture is very enlightening and rather enjoyable to peruse.

Oh, and be aware that I enjoy reading everything that I can get my little eyeballs on hehe


Your neighborhood coffee addict

Moo



Group hug {{{{{HUG}}}}}


http://www.tni.org/detail_page.phtml?act_id=18736

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Permalink Reply by American in the D.R. on December 6, 2008 at 1:05pm

Did someone say something about COFFEE? Hi Moo. :~) I tried to read your link but the print is too small.

{{{{HUG}}}} ADR

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Permalink Reply by Steve Willmorth on December 8, 2008 at 12:10am

ADR,
Remember when you mentioned the shortage of vessels and I commented on the fact that there should be a glut of tankers?

Well, while you are having your morning coffee check this out.

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Permalink Reply by American in the D.R. on December 8, 2008 at 5:49am

Thanks Steve,

Very good link concerning where the oil is.

For those interested, you can Google NAT, Nordic American Tanker that owns and operates a fleet of oil tankers. The CEO was on CNBC about a month ago and said that NAT was doing very well, then hit a slump and then said that all his tankers are booked again. I received my dividend on my stocks with this company @ $1.61 per share, about the same as last time that surprised me. Looking at a couple of things, I saw that the daily income was down but their operating costs were way down. I can only translate this to support your article Steve. The tankers are being used for storage but not going anywhere.

52 week High: 42.00
52 week Low: 22.00
Last: 29.32
The dividend has stayed about the same for the last 4 quarters; $1.61 area.
____________________________________________
DRYS, DryShips Inc. ships dry bulk. Coal, iron ore, wheat, etc.

Last dividend was .20, about .60 less then last quarter.
52 week High: 116.43
52 week Low: 3.04
Last: 4.42
These ships are sitting empty.
___________________________________
Evergreen Marine Corp. 2603 (Taiwan Stock Exchange) is the largest fleet for container shipping.
52 Week High: 33.00
52 Week Low 13.25
Last: 15.45
July dividend: 1.70 I have not found the last quarter dividend.
Also showing a slowdown in shipping.

Regards, ADR.... where's my coffeeeeee? :~)

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Permalink Reply by American in the D.R. on December 8, 2008 at 6:09am

I now have to think about, IF the bulk of the Worlds oil tankers are being used for storage:

1. Are these speculators holding this oil waiting for the price to rise OR will force the increase due to they now control the ships that have the oil?

2. If ships are not available to transport oil at market price then it become not a supply/demand situation, it becomes he that controls the transporting OF the oil.

3. Those that need oil have filled all their land based storage facilities and are taking advantage of low prices by using ships to store more for their own use.

4. The ships are full but will not sail until a bill of laiding is provided, a letter of credet that the shipper will be paid in full at time of delivery.

Regards, ADR

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Permalink Reply by Peak Dad on December 8, 2008 at 9:09am

It becomes he that controls the transporting of the oil......

A novel thought worth exploring.

My take: At $140/bbl, every rusty old rig in the world was suddenly worth coaxing back into action. Just as that was happening, demand suddenly dropped, and oil had nowhere to flow. It would seem to me that we have tremendous slack in the system, and they have to store it somewhere. By the time it tightens back up, I think the global economies will be trapped in a slow - maybe fast - downward spiral and thus, demand destruction continues long into the future.

The fact that we have reached peak oil will never really reach the average consumer. They'll be so caught up by observing the dwindling economy, that they won't recognize the force behind it.

I thin

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Permalink Reply by Steve Willmorth on December 8, 2008 at 2:41pm

ADR,
If those ships are indeed sitting around storing oil, their costs of operation should be pretty low (this is a sarcastic understatement). They would be paying a higher dividend this quarter, so you better get more shares in NAT. Buy more DRYS while your at it, because other commodity producers will start doing this with wheat, corn, etc. as well.
You can get the funding by selling those Evergreen 2603 stocks you have. A drive past the port of Seattle, the largest Chinese shipping port, will show you that there are two container ships in port right now where there were over a dozen ships last summer.

Regarding your 4 point post, it is my understanding that these ships are being utilized by the producers, and not speculators. I think that would mean they are betting, wishing, and hopin' for a rise in oil (#1)

If that is so, they would have an interest in only the oil, and not in driving up the transport costs of the oil.(#2).

And, they have indeed filled up their land based storage.(#3) Which is what I have been looking at when I bet that the price of oil was gonna go down.

And, somewhere in that article I got the feeling that those full ships were docked in the US, meaning they have already been moved into more secure locations, and have paid the transport costs and now are paying demurrage that they negotiated with the shipper (#4)

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Permalink Reply by American in the D.R. on December 8, 2008 at 4:20pm

Steve, I think that we are very much on the same page.

I think that NAT found that if they did not have a demand to ship/transport the oil, then they could make money as storage. If/when the demand for oil transport increases, the avalable ships will cost more thus raising the price of the oil. Lots of supply but the demand will be limited by lack of supply due to lack of transport. Prices go up. Does that make sense?

I don't own any Evergreen Marine. I think that your observation, Steve, is well worth noting.

Holding my DRYS, as raw materials and food will need to move. Will buy more NAT if it falls again OR I find lots of money.

Regards and thanks for everyones thoughts. ADR

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