There are a lot of misunderstandings about oil, especially given how much talk there is about it.
#1 The USA consumes and exports 20.7 million barrels per day of refinery outputs.
#2 For every 42 gallon barrel of crude oil into a refinery you get an average of 44.5 gallons of refined products out of the refinery (when your refine crude oil, you produce products that expand in volume - the technical term is that refinery products have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. This gain due to refining is called "refinery gain." It is significant and is one of many reasons why you want refinery tech and capacity inside your country, especially if you are producing less crude oil. These Refinery Gains add 1.0 million barrels a day.
#3 But we also send into our refineries other hydrocarbons and some oxygenates that either supplement or substitute for crude oil. These are significant and are almost always ignored. The largest of these imputs is Natural Gas Plant Liquids. So producing more natural gas, produces more of a direct substitute to crude oil. The USA produces 2.0 million barrels per day of NGPL.
#4 Then we send another 0.6 million barrels per day of ethanol and other oxygenates into the refineries.
So 20.7 million barrels per day of refinery outputs consumed and exported. We export 1.3 million barrels per day of finished products. So we actual consume, 19.4 million. Keep in mind, that many countries that produce crude oil, can't refine it into anything useful. They are just as dependent on foreign (meaning us) gasoline as we are on foreign (meaning their) oil.
19.4 - 5.1 (domestic crude oil and lease condensates) - 2.0 Natural Gas Plant Liquids - 1.0 Refinery Gains - 0.6 Ethanol/Oxygenates = leaving 10.7 million barrels per day needed from foreign countries for our consumption.
The largest source of this "foreign" oil is CANADA!!!! Canada sends us 2.4 million barrels per day. Of this amount about 1.4 million is conventional crude oil and heavy oil (which sometimes is not counted as crude oil, but as a non-conventional oil, called heavy or ultra heavy, and the other 1.0 million is from Canadian tar sands.
The second largest source of "foreign" oil is MEXICO!!!! Mexico sends us 1.5 million barrels per day of crude and heavy oil. Much Mexican oil is heavy oil. Mexico has more heavy oil and utlra heavy that its not producing. Mexican sweet crude production has peaked.
So, 19.4 - 5.1 (domestic crude oil and lease condensates) - 2.0 Natural Gas Plant Liquids - 1.0 Refinery Gains - 0.6 Ethanol/Oxygenates = leaving 10.7 million barrels per day need from foreign countries for our consumption. 10.7 - 1.4 Canadian crude and heavy oil, -1.0 Canadian tar sand bitumen, -1.5 Mexican crude and heavy oil. So that leaves 6.8 coming from outside the USA, Canada and Mexico.
Of this 6.8 million only 19% or 1.3 million per day comes from all of the Middle East producers (Saudi Arabia, gulf states, Iraq, Kuwait ...)
The rest of America's crude imports come from several African countries (Nigeria and Angola being the biggest), several South American countries (Venezuela and Columbia are the largest) and Russia (some of which is produced in SIberia in ecosystems much like ANWR under Russian eco laws).
The USA could easily be producing far more than the 1.3 million we get from the Persian Gulf domestically from areas which it is illegal to produce in the USA:
Alaska National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR) 0.4 million
New California Offshore 0.4 million
Eastern Gulf Florida Straights 0.5 million
Atlantic Coast 0.5 million
Deep Water Off Shelf (Gulf) 0.2 million
Natural Gas Plant Liquids from natural gas produced in these areas 0.5 million
The USA could also could be producing synthfuels from coal and natural gas. If EPA permitting was expedited, we could reasonably be adding an additional production capacity of 0.3 million from coal and 0.2 million from natural gas every five years.
Pickens suggested use of CNG (compressed natural gas, which is different from natural gas synthfuel) could add an additional capacity of say 0.4 million every five years, very reasonably.
On the conservation side, the biggest impacts will be from reduced miles driven, and then by a roughly 5% per year improvement in average fuel efficiency of the nation's cars and trucks. Hybrids and Plug-Ins, along with smaller conventional gasoline engines and CNG will all combine in achieving this 5% efficiency gain - very likely we may get a result above that.
Get online this USA crude production, add some modest synthfuel capacity, use CNG in a reasonably plausible amount and get the hybrids and plug-in going and in a few more years we'll break $150 oil. (Go google what happened to oil after the 1979 oil shock ... the 1986 oil glut).
Bottom line most of the gasoline in your tank is produced in North or South America, much of it isn;t from crude oil, but from substitute inputs for crude oil.