Putin, Pickens and Geopolitics

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Permalink Reply by Terrence Abrams on December 31, 2008 at 12:59pm

good paper, smart facts, leaves out the x-factors of more Russian sponsored terrorism and satellite country invasions, which could prove disatrous to many facets you cover, but a good paper nonetheless.

Permalink Reply by Chandrashekar Tamirisa on January 11, 2009 at 11:01am

First, Vladimir Putin made a serious strategic mistake. Knowing full well that this showdown with Ukraine could materialize, he should have begun vigorous diplomacy with Western Europe to reduce the leverage of the much smaller former Soviet states given that the large Western European economies are his biggest clients.

He needs the money, they need the gas, whatever the politics, including the Cold War.

Second, he must resume gas supplies, just as immediately as Israel ought to have resumed the cease-fire in Gaza, provided Ukraine returns to negotiate, with his very reasonable case for higher gas prices for Ukraine made to Germany and others (Putin, by subsidizing gas for Ukraine even after the increase to $250/1000 CM, is paying Ukraine for permitting the use of its territory to supply Europe).

Further, unlike Israel, Russia is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council and this kind of economically destabilizing behavior on the part of Russia does not speak well of its international stature.

That said, the rest of Western Europe must follow France's example by increasing its content of nuclear power in all of the EU member countries, which is the most realistic option for Europe to almost entirely free itself from oil and gas imports, except for automobiles, and even this will no longer be necessary in two decades, given where BMW already is with hydrogen and the remaining Norwegian, Dutch and English oil.

Assuming that the EU embarks on a nuclear, wind and solar agenda more aggressively (it has already begun to do so and is far ahead of the United States), Putin re-negotiating with Ukraine to stay in the good books of the EU is still necessary, because this change cannot be accomplished overnight.

It could take the EU at least a decade to build more nuclear power plants to meet the majority of its power demands, meaning changes to the Cold War gas infrastructure have to be made on both sides of Europe, west and east, in the interim, to prevent future such prurient squabbles holding bystanders hostage in the name of diplomacy.

As with Georgia, the EU must not repeat the mistake of signaling to the smaller former Soviet countries that they can demonize Russia to please the countries to their West, in their eagerness to join NATO, EU and adopt the euro.

Smoother, not abrupt, diplomatic maneuvers by Russia in the future can avert the need for missile defense in Europe and a competing gas pipeline being promoted by the United States.

This is not to say that this gas pipeline will not be necessary, but its purpose will not be to counter Russia's potential aggression both unilaterally and through any global consortium.

It is a lesson a Cold Warrior like Putin must learn in the new world he lives in. More sophistication, not edict, is necessary to run democracies. Cutting off gas is the diplomatic equivalent of Khrushchev thumping his shoe on the desk at the U.N.

This is a choice only Russia can make.

Permalink Reply by Chandrashekar Tamirisa on January 11, 2009 at 10:25am

Don Cornwell's (MD-07, http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bal-op.pickensplan11j...) is a good piece that is focused on the conversion of the heavy fleets to natural gas and how PP can make that happen. However, there are a few key problems with the argument, if Don does not mind me critiquing his article:

1. "Most important, natural gas is abundant in the U.S. as a result of new recovery techniques in shale formations. The presence of this resource on our territory means that the markets and pricing of compressed natural gas are local and not at the mercy of geopolitical events. The recent restriction of Russian gas to Ukraine (and, as a consequence, to Western Europe) demonstrates this independence; it has not affected natural gas prices in the U.S."

This paragraph was better off not being in the article because the DOE projects that by 2030 the United States natural gas production can only meet 75% of U.S. demand, meaning our natural gas imports will rise in the future just as our oil imports did.

Further, the global natural gas market is in the process of evolving into a market that better supports global pricing just as it is with oil to support the rising global demand for the commodity, meaning, increasingly the concept of "local prices" for natural gas will become irrelevant, given the role of the financial markets in commodity pricing, which is why the Ukraine matter could become more relevant in the future to geopolitically justify greater energy self-reliance and diversification by all countries (creating a global market for U.S. alternative energy technologies), and hence the need for PP and WE to cooperate. There is a mutual need here on the side of PP and the "green only" lobby to join forces as I have stated in the DL discussion.

2. Nothing prevents T. Boone and PP from investing in more domestic natural gas production and infrastructure within the next decade to convert the heavy fleets and to promote small wind as a start, to eventually seamlessly integrate into the broader energy diversification agenda that is gathering steam globally.

I think PP ought to stay focused on (2) above with the aid of BP Capital.

Permalink Reply by Thomas Dixon on September 2, 2009 at 8:56am

I think we all should be looking at the long term need for affordable energy. In the short term natural gas and coal will keep us warm in the winter but these are all finite energy sources and we need to be looking at the ultimate energy source that can sustain us for as long as we live on this planet. And the only energy source than can do this is geothermal. And I don’t mean land based geothermal sites, I am looking at places like the Mid Atlantic ridge where tectonic plates are spreading apart and exposing molten rock, (lava). This heat source spans thousands of miles and if we tap this source we will have all the energy the world will ever need.

We already have the technology. All we need to do is perform some seismic studies along this rift and find the places where the curst if very thin and spreading. Once found we can tap this energy.

Once tapped we should use this energy to produce hydrogen for a hydrogen fuel economy. Wind and solar can also be used to produce hydrogen complimenting the larger energy sources along the Mid Atlantic ridge.

Permalink Reply by Tom Bailey on January 11, 2009 at 12:56pm

Good letter, let's see if this helps get attention.
Tom

Permalink Reply by Chandrashekar Tamirisa on January 11, 2009 at 3:33pm

Thank you for expressing your strong feelings. But please delete your comment.

As a matter of PP etiquette, it would be nice if those joining the plan, albeit their strong feelings about people, use their real names and not appear to use the network in a manner that could be insulting to the public figures PP interfaces with to advance our agenda.

We should try to keep our conversations more substantive and persuasive to deal with the challenges the plan and the country are facing.

We will be far more successful, whatever our personal feelings may be, if we approach the cause of PP in a more civil manner.

Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

Permalink Reply by Debra Goldenberg on September 7, 2009 at 12:12pm

I think that Thomas D has stated his reply and NOT any strong feelings. Do not delete his comment, it is a valid way to say whaterver was stated *is* valid. Please allow the First Amendment of the Bill of Rights, which states clearly for Americans we can write and convey our Feelings and Thoughts in a Manner befitting our experiences in this, a free and united US of America. Where are you, anyway? In India, ha ha, we already sailed the ocean blue to find a place to shine our light. -- 1492 -- For all the world to see. Hail Pilgrims, hail the rock, Jesus SAVES, go suck on my c#$%!! (Pardon my French :)) Check history, check google, Tea Party(s). Everywhere!

Permalink Reply by Thomas Dixon on September 7, 2009 at 3:25pm

I don’t know who is trying to get what deleted. This forum is hard to follow. You cannot go back and look at the post being addressed. We all should just chill out.

Permalink Reply by Chandrashekar Tamirisa on September 7, 2009 at 5:17pm

The Pickens Plan site administrators must communicate to all members of the etiquette that is needed to be a member and contribute to the conversation. I do not appreciate ethnic or religious profiling and it is important that all of us, naturalized or native born are all immigrants in the United States of America. If the people do not like this they should change the law. The society and the law are not two distinct entities. I am closing this discussion.