what if the price of oil declines significantly?

How can we make and keep the need for alternative power sources an urgent element if the price of oil declines to, say $80/bbl? If I am even reasonably close, that corresponds to about $2.00/gal at the pump. People have already proven that "two-dollar" gas does not generate the "hurt" needed to demand that Congress act. Popular support would vanish over-night.

I think that a decline in oil prices is in the future -- OPEC isn't stupid and pushing the US to alternate power sources is not in their best interest. Further, China's hoarding fuel will probably be over relatively soon and, if they dump their overages on the market, that will further depress the price. So, I believe my premise is valid and the time to plan for that contingency is now. How say you?

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Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Raj on July 24, 2008 at 12:08pm: I hate to put it bluntly, but if the majority of us haven't learned from thr1973 and the current episodes, and change our behavior, then in my opinion then we have only ourselves blame.
I
'm 66 years old; I ride the bicycle (about 5 miles) to the health club, where I play tennis/workout.working.
I combine all my errands and get them done in one trip.
I turn off the lights when there is no need for them to be on.
I rode the bus for three years when I was working.

If every driver in the U.S. decides not to drive one or 2 weeks a month and use alternate methods of transportations (bus, train, carpool, vanpool etc). and if the Govt. regulators keep an eye on the speculators and market manipulators, the price will come down.

So, this means, WE, THE PEOPLE have to change our lifestyle; I quit smoking, I quit drinking, so I can say our driving habits can also be changed, but it's up to us. as a nation to resolve to do that.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Kay Elliott on July 24, 2008 at 11:35am: We need to end the dependence on foreign oil, if they drop it to $50. or $30.bbl. Their profits, our
pain. End it as much as possible.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Lanny on July 24, 2008 at 3:07pm: Mr. Jones,
IMO you bring up a valid point which is going to happen once OPEC and the Russians realize the U.S. is going to push alternate energy. The market will be flooded with cheap oil and the U.S. will be knocked down in round three. The special interest groups get smarter and the congress becomes subduced. Last time out propane was very cheap when gas was going thru the roof.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Warner on July 24, 2008 at 7:53pm: You are correct. OPEC will likely step up production and sell cheaper oil. All the better for us, but
we must see the Plan through or be right back where we are now.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Robert M. Flick Jr, on July 24, 2008 at 10:07pm: Thanks for the reply. I read a proposal and think it has a lot of good merit. I am currently using alternative energy where I live now. We have a small ranch around the boise Idaho area and live about 2.5 miles off the main road and power !! Idaho power only wanted $25,000 to run electric in and give us a bill each month so we decided to go with alternative power. Currently we have several solar panels, a battery bank , inverter and generator and try to add on as we are able. We use the low wattage light bulbs and turn off phantom loads when we are not using them. We use the generator to run the well but pump the water into a holding tank and use a RV type water pump to supply the water in the house and water animals. We also do solar water heating. It is a lot of work at times but we like the Ideal of being independant and not having to be at the mercy of the power company. We would love to make our place into a wind and solar farm but the funds are not there to do it. We tried checking on grant money but have had little success ( it seem like the grant money is only available to local government or what they advertise as grant money for the public to do alternative energy turns out to be low interest loans but those are only if the bank is willing to lend you the money) It is kind of a shame to have the place and willingness to do something like this but have walls all around you stopping progress. Well if nothing else we are helping in a small way to save some of our resources.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Robert D. Jones on July 25, 2008 at 9:24am: Morning Robert,

Great that you have chosen to rid yourself of the dependence -- it is certainly the way we will all hopefully go sometime in the relatively near future.

What you encountered regarding attempts to introduce additional solar plus wind generation is exactly what we are involved in trying to eliminate. Once the road-blocks are eliminated, then I believe that money needed to accomplish a great deal will be more forthcoming. I am also an advocate that individuals, like yourself, shouldn't have to deal with the same restrictions that commercial producers must meet. But, that is another discussion topic.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Danny Smith on July 24, 2008 at 10:44pm: I just wanted to add a thought for the older folks that went through the lines in the 70's (I'm old enough to rememeber them well but wasnt really affected by them,missed them by a couple years)
We have one big difference than then we have the internet and instant news. IF we can keep this in the news we can affect change in this country.Also there are many things in the works already this time and f even half of them prove out change is coming.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Robert D. Jones on July 25, 2008 at 9:30am: Agreed. I was there, and clearly remember the 70's. However, please don't confuse the two in terms of problems. In the 70's, there was a shortage of gasoline. Today, there is plenty of gasoline, it just costs an order of magnitude more than it did back then. Also, we were much less dependent on foreign sources then, than now.

My hope is that if we get enough people interested and poke the legislature enough we can speed up the transition from fossil based energy generation to resources that we control. That change is essential to our national security (forget about money) and the sooner it happens, the better. However, we will have to step through a series of events and several different energy sources (personal and commercial transportation, power generation, for example) until we arrive at something that may well be truly permanent.

Time to get on the road, IMHO.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Phil McQuillan on July 25, 2008 at 8:14pm: Does anybody know where Lee Iococca stands on the Pickens Plan? Lee was recently crying out for real leadership to help solve our nations most pressing problems. Boone is just that, a born leader and seemingly a 'boon' to our country's current energy crisis. Thanks for reading...; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Rexrino on July 25, 2008 at 8:27pm: This is an easy question.
The same thing happened to the Carter Plan. When it looked like Alternative energy was catching on, magically the Oil problem went away and so did the incentive to pursue Alternative energy.

Back then, the only means of communication between groups of people were the Magazines and phone, not counting the media. Today, we don't have that problem. The internet has done more to educate the public with data about the true state of the Oil industry. Simply manipulating prices to stop activities that have gained popularity will probably not work.

Also, as a result of the internet, it is easier to follow the legislatures in their voting habits, real claims of environmental sensitivity and the effects that lobbiests have on their voting habits.

In other words, it getting increasing harder to lie to the public and when it is done, the repercussions are usually a lot faster in coming.

Oil will not decline in value for the simple reason that a decline in price echo's to a decline in profits. The oil industry is making more money now, with higher prices than they ever did. Also, the need for oil in other countries is working to make sure that prices don't decline too much.

The very popular "Drilling in American for oil" is not a solution at all. If there were found to be Oil fields offshore and around the country, why would they want to sell it here, when they can get 4 times as much money selling it overseas? I'm afraid that the only way to prevent this is to nationalize the oil industry and make sure that the oil discovered here is put to work for the American People and that will never happen because the government doesn't have the capital and equipment to locate and process the Oil.

The question is clear to me, do we drill for oil, destroy the environment in the process so some Oil profiteers can get even richer while our economy languishes? Another problem is, after the environment is destroyed and dug up, there won't be enough money left to clean up the mess.

Any way you look at the problem, the only way to clean up the environment, and assure that there will be adequate energy for future generations is to move into the Alternative Energy Frontier. It's like making a decision to go to the moon. In the end, we will all profit, or rather our great grandchildren will profit.

It will be hard for us older folks and not too much better for our children but our grandchildren and their children may be left a legacy that everyone can be proud of for centuries to come. We will be touted as the generation that finally made a difference.

Hope this helps answer your question.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Danny Smith on July 25, 2008 at 10:04pm: Where do you get the idea the oil companies would get more for their oil elsewhere? If that were the case wouldnt they be selling it there instead of to us now? Supply and demand dictates that if supply is higher than demand prices fall since we use 25% of the oil the more we produce the more the supply for the whole world. So even if you buy into the short supplied producing more now gives us a chance for the many new technologies in process now to reach maturity helping us to get off the fossil fuels.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Rexrino on July 27, 2008 at 10:28pm: Danny, most of the questions you ask are easily answered by some simple searching on the internet. Here is a link to a site that keeps track of gas prices.
http://www.gasbuddy.com/

America does not have the cheapest gas but it is high up in the list of low prices compared to other countries. Gas in Canada usually runs 1 to 2 dollars more per gallon then us. I think the price of gas in England is much higher. I think the reason we get a better price has more to do with the simple fact of volume buying, better deep water ports, etc. We are the one stop consumer of the world.

But we have some new players in town, Russia and China...... They are starting to use more then us.

I get the impression you don't think we have a problem with Oil supply in the world. Is this correct?; ▶ Reply to This