what if the price of oil declines significantly?

How can we make and keep the need for alternative power sources an urgent element if the price of oil declines to, say $80/bbl? If I am even reasonably close, that corresponds to about $2.00/gal at the pump. People have already proven that "two-dollar" gas does not generate the "hurt" needed to demand that Congress act. Popular support would vanish over-night.

I think that a decline in oil prices is in the future -- OPEC isn't stupid and pushing the US to alternate power sources is not in their best interest. Further, China's hoarding fuel will probably be over relatively soon and, if they dump their overages on the market, that will further depress the price. So, I believe my premise is valid and the time to plan for that contingency is now. How say you?

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Permalink Reply by Robert D. Jones on July 31, 2008 at 8:08am: Brad and Tina,

Giving up never entered my head. But, I would like to comment on some of your other statements. You said, "the Greed of the Futures market participants is still driving the cost of the gasoline that is left up and they CROW about it!!"

The futures market is certainly directly impacting the price of oil (and indirectly the cost of gasoline). As you know, the futures market is inflluenced to a great degree by the perception (by the speculators) of the availablilty of oil versus the demand for oil on the specific day in question. Whether they think the price be up or down depends on their gut feel (that demand will outstrip supply for the forseeable future) modified by what they think will be the geopolitical impact on production and/or availability (someone could blow up a pipeline, for example) again on that specific day. They were making bundles for a while, but those that bought futures at $140 for today (price $123) are losing $17 per barrel -- and when you are talking about hundreds of thousands, even millions of barrels, to paraphrase the good senator, you eventually can get into real money. Greed, sure, assuming you equate that to wanting to make the most profit possible. But, in this country, making a profit is not yet a crime (although it seems that the oil company average of 7% may be considered one, by some). But remember, like the stock market or any other gamble -- what we hear about is the upside, the downside (the speculator that went broke in one day) isn't news most of the time (unless he takes a header off a tall building as in the days of "The Depression").

Then you said: "It makes me want to throw up that they steal the money from all of us. Poor, Wealthy, Middle Class and all the gradients in between. Our system is rife with corruption which makes the whole battle seem fruitless. We have to stay banded together and not let dissention creep in." Guys, I don't know if you mean the speculators, the oil companies, or Congress. So, I'll discuss each one. The speculators are simply betting their money on a variable outcome. They win or lose based on the accuracy of their guess. That isn't stealing, in my book, unless they are proactive in some manner that impacts the outcome (fixes the fight, so to speak). But, that is a personal opinion. The oil companies invest huge amounts annually to find (prove) and develop new sources of energy -- primarily oil and gas, but they also are into most of the alternates we talk about on this forum. I don't know what the cost per foot to drill is today, but the odds on success are something like one in seven for viable production. The cost of the six dry holes has to be paid. They have to make money to stay in business and something less than 10% is not a lot of profit (may be a lot of money, but that is a function of volume which, in tern is a function of capital at risk). Let's use Mr. Pickens as an excellent example. While he may have (and probably does have) altuistic motives, if his company doesn't make money his good intentions are just that. It is the money that makes it happen and that comes directly from profit or invested monies (which are from his and other folks profit/capital).

In this specific case, according to the NY Times, Mr. Pickens has invested billions (with a B) through his company buying land and windmills (the largest order ever made, according to the article) to create the world's largest wind farm. You can take it to the bank that he intends to make a profit from that investment -- as well as to move the US away from dependence on petroleum. Other energy companies are doing the same thing.

If you are talking about the Government, I agree. They take money for no return and give it to people that have done nothing to merit receiving it. Formally, it is called "redistribution of wealth/resources" and it is literally taking money from one group (that has earned it) and giving to another group (that has not earned it). That is theft by most definitions.

Now on to some other stuff -- Solar energy is there for all of us. Lay out a hose full of water in your back yard. Come back in a few minutes, turn it on and stick your hand into the stream. Solar heating -- will make you jerk your hand away quickly -- at least down here in south Texas. It did the same in northern California a couple of decades ago. It is pretty easy to build a manifold out of black pvc and hook it into your hot water system. With proper placement you don't even need a pump and (if you don't have extremely hard water) it is virtually maintenance free. Just don't put it on your roof without reinforcement -- water weighs a ton, pun intended. Costs a lot less than solar panels and provides a direct reduction in your utility bill.

Bob; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by KENN DRESCHER on July 30, 2008 at 11:19am: Hear, Hear!!!; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Tammie Duggan on July 30, 2008 at 3:30pm: Even if oil got back to $80.00/bbl if we bought it in the form of foreign oil we would still be transferring our wealth.

The other thing is developing nations needs combined with our own will keep demand high.

Alternate power sources will free the US from OPEC. Let them drink their oil. No matter how you slice it oil is limited. Oil might not even be the best source of energy to choose from anymore with so much new technology developing. Don't hang your high hopes on NG either. It too is subject to the same corporate greed that is in place now. Trust me ..the oil companies want to stay in the drivers seats even if it means being the head drivers of alternative energy.

Freedom from oil means cleaner air, an end to our dependence on foreign oil, and most of all to begin tapping into clean renewable sources of energy.

Finally aren't we getting sick and tired of being like a leaf in the wind when it comes to our energy needs? These giant corporations have become too powerful. They go up on your electricity and if you want to keep getting it you comply. Just imagine when we settled this country. There was no electricity and we did great things. Without cars and grocery stores even.

Geez if Pickens can recognize US dollars leaving the country to purchase foreign oil then he must be able to see the wings on US dollars leaving the country for a ton of other things too. Look at all the things we buy from china. So what if it has lead paint, so what if it makes us sick, it is CHEAP.
Meanwhile our manufacturing plants are becoming fewer and fewer. Large corporations take their work to foreign countries and hire people of third world countries who have no rights and take advantage of low labor costs. Many of them are slave labor. This is just WRONG!

Often you hear people say ..elect better politicians. I think that is backwards. Strong independent individuals making up a nation keeps dishonest politicians and coroporations at a disadvantage. It is only when we become weak as a large group of individuals can these larger entities take advantage of us. We allow it. That is where we are now..we have allowed ourselves to become dependent individually on government and coroporate structures. Instead of them asking us about raising our taxes..they just do it. They don't wait anymore for you to send in your taxes, they take it from your check before you ever see your check.

Aren't we as a nation getting about sick of all this?

Think about it like this....a strong nation created from strong people is more desireable. As long as we all run off the same grids. Deliver our power in masses. We are weaker than we would be if every person had a form of independent energy. The way our infrastructure is set up even a storm can leave 100s of thousands without electricity. We would be a much stronger union if we were all a bit stronger independently and not so dependent on any single entity be it government or corporate.

In America if you can't get to the grocery store you can't get anything to eat. we have become so complacent and dependent. No electricity and even the food at the grocery store spoils. No gas and we can't seem to figure out how to get around. We have 2.5 cars to every household. One for mom, one for dad, and usually one or two extras if you have teenagers with drivers license.

We recylcle our poop and pee back into our drinking water and call it safe.

The majority of Americans are sedantary fat diseased people. Even a large percentage of our teenagers are obese and victims of the same diseases as their elders much older.

We have just got to rethink how we are doing things.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Rexrino on July 31, 2008 at 6:07am: Well said Tammy,

The problem is not the Oil companies. We are the problem. the Oil company tycoons are not buying cheap Chinese merchandise. We are . We need to quit buying the stuff.

As for Alternatives to Oil, a bicycle is an Alternative. An Electric Bike is an alternative. Local grown food is an alternative to food that was grown in another location and transported with Oil to our location. There is much we, as a nation of people can do. We can start by not sending our money overseas. Keep it here in America. We also don't need to send our money to another city or state. We can spend it locally. That is the sacrifice we need to make to. If we keep tight control of our the money in our pocket, and spend it locally, we won't even need the Pickings Plan. It will become the National Oil tycoons plan because they want our money.

Want to send a message? Be wise with your money.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Rexrino on August 2, 2008 at 12:29pm: I've been following this research for some time now. I think we are finally on the road to a new hydrogen energy age. It will make Oil Obsolete. I would suggest when the start ups come on line, you invest your money here because this is where the real action will be.

Instead of using wind energy for electricity, we can use it to generate hydrogen gas. This means we can continue to make cheap fertilizer with the NG and delay the "die off", predicted by so many doomers.

"Researchers at MIT say they have delivered a major breakthrough in storing solar energy, inspired by photosynthesis and using a catalyst made up of cobalt metal.

http://earth2tech.com/2008/07/31/mit-solar-energy-storage-breakthro...; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Phil McQuillan on July 30, 2008 at 4:07pm: Action+Action=Results
http://push.pickensplan.com/forum/topic/show?id=2187034%3ATopic%3A4...
Here you will find many sample letters for anyone to use in whole or in part. Just Cut & Paste what's useful to you and send to your state representatives with appropriate changes. If you would like to see your Letter added to this list just post it using the Reply box below and I will add it. Many thanks for CONTRIBUTING!; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Alex S on July 30, 2008 at 11:22pm: If the oil price drops. people will buy more oil making it expensive again.However since the supply is dropping, i dont see how the prices can decline much.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Rexrino on August 2, 2008 at 12:34pm: Yes Michael, that's pretty blunt way of putting it. But not all Americans are to blame. Bush didn't win by that much of a lead the second time and the first is still contested.; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Robert D. Jones on August 2, 2008 at 1:10pm: Michael and Rexrino,

First, let's try to keep the discussion to something other than political diatribe. It will not solve anything and may well detract from our ability to cooperate in discovering and implementing a solution.

If you want to get into a political discussion, there are other forums where I am sure you can find plenty of folks that feel as you do and at least an equal number who disagree with your perspective.

None of that will help identify, objectively evaluate, and constructively implement the solutions that will reduce our demand on foreign controlled resources in the short term and wean us from our dependency/addiction to oil in the long haul.

Bob; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Rexrino on August 2, 2008 at 2:34pm: Good suggestion.

I suggest everyone look here and consider the possibilities, especially, using this method to store the wind energy. It may be that before the Picken's plan is developed, we will switch to Hydrogen after all.
"...Researchers at MIT say they have delivered a major breakthrough in storing solar energy, inspired by photosynthesis and using a catalyst made up of cobalt metal..."

http://earth2tech.com/2008/07/31/mit-solar-energy-storage-breakthro...

We all need to consider the consequences of using NG for transportation. Using Corn for fuel deprives people of food. Using NG for transportation deprives them of fertilizer to grow the food.

apendeum:

I've thought about this all day and I'll try to explain the ramifications.

We all know that plants take in water, and using sunlight separate it into hydrogen and oxygen. They do it effortlessly.

Now if we could do the same thing, we could manufacture all the hydrogen and oxygen we need because we have abundant supplies of water. Well, MIT has done exactly that.

Now lets combine the fact of unlimited, cheap energy with genetic research. Genetic research has created life in the laboratory. With enough time, we can combine these two technologies together and have cheap, abundant energy and more food then we can imagine to feed the whole earth, most of which can be manufactured at home (that is, in your house, not in this country).

So we have an end to the Oil industry, an end to the Fertilizer industry, an end to the electrical industry, and an end to the farming industry.

Time table, probably within the next 30 to 50 years.

What will take billions to fund the Picken's plan can be done using the hydrogen industry with millions.

Now lets look at space travel. Well, cheap hydrogen, cheap oxygen.... build rockets that use water. They use the solar energy of the sun to manufacture hydrogen and Oxygen from the water and when they are combined they produce exothermic thrust and water. Every time a rocket takes off, it rains.

This is not science fiction. It is now, science fact. :); ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Robert D. Jones on August 3, 2008 at 8:45am: I think that hydrogen fuel is the best alternative for the future. However, hydrogen source has been around for at least twenty years (the Space Shuttle uses "fuel cells" which are actually electrical power supplies that use hydrogen for fuel. They are not practical for the average user.

I hope MIT has an answer that is not something like twenty or thirty years in the future. But, everything I have seen to date says that hydrogen generation, distribution, and use in practical transportation and generation devices is going to take some time to establish.

Until then, we have to have something to use (other than petroleum). There are draw backs to anything. For example, I have heard/read (can't remember which) that a large wind farm destroys the ecology behind it (meaning downwind) because it alters the existing wind pattern to a large degree because it subtracts considerable energy from the normal flow. Turns fertile land into desert, worst case I recall hearing. That's why many people advocate putting the wind farms off-shore. Frankly, I don't know whether it is true or not.

Same for the impact of CNG use -- I tend to think it would depend on the quantities -- available versus the increased demand.

As for petroleum availability in this country, I suggest you look at the National Geological Report on the newest developed field (something like 3 trillion, yes with a capital T, in "proven" resources). Incidentally, for those that don't know, "proven" resources are those that are economically extractable using existing technology. (I'll post the cite if anyone is interested.) The problem is that drilling is prohibited (except to prove the field).

So, dealing in science fact, there are a number of alternatives. We still have to select the more viable and get Congress to approve the tools needed to get them on line -- be it petroleum, CNG, LPG, wind, solar, nuclear, or hydrogen.

Bob; ▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Rexrino on August 3, 2008 at 11:24am: Yes, Bob, this is it.
I've been following this research for a few years. It is "the" breakthrough. Marketing estimates are for around 10 years for commercial and residential application.; ▶ Reply to This