Natural Gas is not a solution, long or short term...
Every reliable source I've read says that the NG supplies in the US have been dwindling for over 30 years. Worse, among the world reserves for untapped NG, the US ranks among the lowest. Perhaps even worse, the cost of compressing (liquefying) and shipping NG from countries with the largest reserves, Russia for example, would make it as energy-expensive as importing petroleum. And, would do nothing to reduce US dependence on foreign energy sources.
Plus, while the energy-cost, of converting existing transportation equipment to NG, is something I have yet to fully research, you can bet it won't be cheap. And that's not even considering converting airlines (the weight of the tanks alone would reduce the passenger/cargo capacity incredibly making airline travel even more expensive)... The task quickly becomes enormous and quite complex.
Wouldn't it be better, and simpler, if we just unite to make our individual lives more energy efficient? And to actively attempt to get the government to provide incentives for individuals and businesses to focus on conservation and truly alternative sources of energy?
--del
Plus, while the energy-cost, of converting existing transportation equipment to NG, is something I have yet to fully research, you can bet it won't be cheap. And that's not even considering converting airlines (the weight of the tanks alone would reduce the passenger/cargo capacity incredibly making airline travel even more expensive)... The task quickly becomes enormous and quite complex.
Wouldn't it be better, and simpler, if we just unite to make our individual lives more energy efficient? And to actively attempt to get the government to provide incentives for individuals and businesses to focus on conservation and truly alternative sources of energy?
--del
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Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by dean brock on -
I don't know where you are getting your references but obviously you haven't seen the one about Wyoming's gas fields, second only to Texas and growing every day. They cant pipe it out of there fast enough. The two fields are the Jonah field at Big Piney Wyo and the Whale field at Wamsutter Wyo. For the last 5 years most of the drilling rigs have been here popping holes, some as high as 4800 psi. Projections are are out as far as 50years of reserves. Then there is the coal and oil shale reserves that stretch from Montana down to Colorado and Utah.
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Permalink Reply by Del Ogren on -
I suppose I could ask you about your sources of information. But let's don't go there.. Assuming that you are correct, you are still talking about one natural gas field in the country and not taking about the larger picture.
Take, as one of many examples, fertilizer. Anhydrous Ammonia is made from natural gas. As the US (and world) population grows, an increasing amount of NG is in demand. At the moment, an increasing amount of fertilizer is being imported into the US. And, the price of fertilizer is increasing. Ask any farmer.
If there is such an abundance of domestic natural gas, how can that be?
--del
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Permalink Reply by D L Braun on -
Anyone in agriculture knows that NG priced and Anhydrous amonia prices are a record levels, tripling in 5 years. Cheap NG where ? Once we add the profiteers cut, federal tax, state tax, cost to convert? All the time no one is saying CONSERVE first,,instead of drill baby drill. All this and no mention of CO2 ????? ANother head in the sand group here?
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Permalink Reply by SJC on -
That can be because of natural gas deregulation in the U.S. Chemical industries have left the U.S. for countries where natural gas prices are regulated. Business like a predictable cost structure, even though they say that they are for less regulation. I guess it depends on whom you are regulating, them or their suppliers.
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Permalink Reply by Kenneth Koch on -
The estimate is that the US has 1300+ trillion cubic feet of recoverable NG. That is a LOT of gas. about 200 years with at the current consumption rate.
http://www.naturalgas.org/overview/resources.asp
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Permalink Reply by Del Ogren on
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What is your source for the NG reserve numbers? My numbers come from a CIA report. And those are fairly close to the numbers reported by another forum member from the Energy Information Administration. Your US reserve numbers are about 6.5X higher.
And I also wonder about your source for US consumption numbers. When I run your numbers backward, that puts your rate of US consumption at about 1/6 what the CIA reported for 2005 consumption!
Somebody is way off here....
--del
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Permalink Reply by NKYCarbon on -
http://www.energypublisher.com/article.asp?id=11918
"U.S. natural gas proved reserves increased 3 percent in 2006, rising to over 211 trillion cubic feet, the highest level since 1976 according the Energy Information Administration. "
"This was the eighth year in a row that U.S. natural gas proved reserves have increased."
I assume we import becuase natural gas usage spikes in winter. Driving spikes in summer. Having year round demand would encourage domestic development.
(and too the last question .. conservation is better than any source of energy but it can only be encouraged (efficiency standards). Only expense get large changes in behavior. Two years ago there was much talk about how some alternative vechicles didn't have the range of gasoline. Yet the story this summer was how much people just did not drive. That was price not regulation nor good will.)
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Permalink Reply by Del Ogren on
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Fine, now lets take a look a look at what those numbers mean....
Converting your numbers from the EIA into cubic meters that puts the total US reserves of natural gas at close to 6 Trillion cubic meters. According to a CIA report from 2005, the US consumption of natural gas was 604 Billion cubic meters per year.
Based on those numbers, simple math will tell you that the US reserves will be gone in 10 years! And that's without adding in increasing demand. An additional 3% per a year in known reserves doesn't give me any hope at all. How long can "known reserves" increase given a finite supply?
Beyond that, the CIA report goes on to say that the whole planet has 172 Trillion cubic meters of natural gas reserve. And an annual consumption rate of 3 trillion. Again simple math will tell you that, even without increasing demand, all the natural gas on the entire planet will be gone in less than 60 years!
Converting cars, trucks, and on and on to natural gas makes no sense to me. It seems like yet another attempt to get folks addicted to a fossil fuel of finite supply. It's time to think outside that box. It's time to turn our backs on all limited-supply energy sources and focus on the future.
--del
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Permalink Reply by Kenneth Koch on
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I have seen a respectable estimate of 1190.62 trillion cubic feet of NG in the US. That woul be about 130 trillion cubic meters. If the US consumes 604 billion cubic meters per year that would be enough for 200 years.
I think you are relying on PROVEN reserves versus probable reserves. Proven reserves in the US have been increasing every year which is kind of a waste of capital.
http://www.naturalgas.org/overview/resources.asp
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Permalink Reply by Del Ogren on
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Again, I ask, what is the source of your numbers? Your estimated supply of "probable" US NG is 20 times the best numbers I've seen for known reserves.
However, "Probable" v.s. "Proven" is of little interest to me, nor should it be to anyone else. We have a national, and global, crisis on our hands here, folks. What's "probable" should be just be ignored. We need to stick with what we _know_. Not with what we think might be.
--del
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Permalink Reply by Jeff Greene on -
We are in complete agreement that Natural Gas is a short term bridge solution. If you listen to Pickens he agrees that electric and hydrogen are the future.
So let's get down to the real numbers.
U.S. Market
About 230 million vehicles on the road
17 million new cars & light trucks per year
Hybrid vehicles now approaching three percent of sales
13 million cars and light trucks taken out of use per year
Average cradle-to-grave vehicle life is long (16.9 years for a car & 15.5 years for a light truck)
Two things stand out. First, we are adding 4 million vehicles per year to our count (17 million in, 13 million out)
Second, those cars are going to be on the road for the next 15 years on average.
Next fact, existing vehicles can NOT be converted to hydrogen or electric.
Next fact, existing vehicles CAN be converted to natural gas.
Next fact, hydrogen and electric are coming.
Next fact, once the Natural Gas infrastructure is established, adding hydrogen will cost 50-80 percent less than starting from scratch because they use many of the same components.
Reality, the EPA is artificially driving up the costs of conversions requiring the Federal Government to then fund a tax credit to pay for the costs they are driving up in the first place. Go figure.
The real solution is keep the DOT approval for the tanks because tanks need to be regulated. Everyone in the industry agrees.
Remove the EPA from the equation and bring back emissions checks. If your cars emissions meet the requirement, its approved.
Encourage or force the US AutoMakers to market and sell the Natural Gas vehicles they are manufacturing in Europe to be sold in the US. In all more, than 28 CNG models are in production globally by Audi, Fiat, Ford, Honda, Hyundai, Lincoln, Mercedez-Benz, Opel, Peugeot, Renault, Toyota, Volkswagen and Volvo.
Now lets look at the job creation.
It takes 4-24 man hours depending on the conversion. Let's assume 10% of vehicles convert, 23 million in the next 5 years. An average of 12 man hours that would create over 25,000 jobs in the mechanic with trade schools able to train in 2-5 days making a wage in excess of $60,000 per year. $1,500,000,000 pumped into our economy on conversions alone.
So before you go off and say wait on new technology or make Americans conserve, btw they would rather convert than conserve, or bury your head in the Saudi sand. Give me a solution that makes sense and I am all for it. For now. Visit www.wisegasinc.com and push your congressman to pass two bills,
Drive America on Natural Gas Act S.3281 Introduced by Senator Inhofe
New Alternative Transportation to Give Americans Solutions (NATGAS) Act
H.R.6570 Introduced by Congressman Emanuel.
We are developing the infrastructure in Florida, we will be moving North and West. We are bringing in a lower priced start up infrastructure.
We are talking with Clean Energy, they are moving East. They are the big boys.
One day, you will able to drive from Key West to Seattle on Natural Gas and 5 years later you will be able to drive it on Hydrogen.
That's a prophecy not a fact.
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Permalink Reply by jerry on -
SORRY BUT I THINK THAT YOU NEED TO RESEARCE MORE ABOUT NCG BECAUSE EVERY WELL THAT IS DRILLED HAS TO HIT NG BEFORE HITTING OIL I HAVE WATCHED A PROGRAM ON DRILLING AND THE NG IS ABUNDTANT EVERY TIME THEY DRILL AND HAVE YOU EVER PICKED UP A 20 POUND TANK OF NG? IT WHIEGHS LESS THAN LIQUID FUELS I LIVE IN MICHIGAN AND IN THE MIDDLE OF MY STATE NG IS BEING PUMPED EVERY DAY SO I THINK YOU NEED TO BE MORE EDUCATED ON WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT AND LOOK AT BRAZIL THEY DONT IMPORT GAS AND OIL THEY ARE INDEPENDENT FOR THE RESOURCES THEY HAVE WHICH IS SUGAR CAIN
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