PP Members Energy Plan (PPMEP) an Alternative to Cap and Tax.

Cap and tax will cause more mischief than it will solve. It will make USA goods and services more costly, especially as business spends money to reduce emissions. More businesses will move over seas, as cap and trade will make it harder for USA workers to compete with imported goods and services.

Worse the 1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide mentioned above is less than 1% of the natural emissions of carbon dioxide into Earth's atmosphere, so a halving or doubling of human emissions of carbon dioxide will change the Earth's temperature by perhaps one thousandth of a degree c = 0.0018 degrees f = negligible. Can anyone say something significantly good about cap and tax?

Well T. Boone now you have gone and done it.. By not standing against the global warming bill and not pushing/demanding NG vehicle conversions we will be exporting wealth for foreign oil and for air (CO2)!!!!! SUCH A DEAL!!!!

The CAP AND TAX will require us to send money overseas to pay for international carbon offsets totaling $15B in 2012 alone as shown by state in figure below.

How many windmills must be manufactured, imported, and installed to eliminate 1.5B metric tons of CO2 between now and 2012????

Lets see. A 1MW windmill running at full load 24/7 produces 61000 megawatt hours per year. The US generated 2B megawatt hours giving off 2.5B metric tons of CO2. or about 1.25 metric tons per megawatt hour. Therefore 1.5B / 61000 / 1.25 = 19,672 1MW windmills are required if the wind blows all the time. double or triple that number for marginal wind resources.

How are you going to build 57,000 windmills??????? And at $2M a pop where are you going to come up with $114B. Do you intend to be among the top 10 companies of the Fortune 500?????

An inquiring mind wants to know!!!!

Windmill Plant cost. are $2M is correct/close see attached for 2008 figures.

tbl38.pdf

I found 2009 figures as well which confirms my capacity factors (double or triple that number for marginal wind resources.) as well See figures below from here.and here.

I double checked The US pays foreign aid if CO2 emissions are not reduced by 1.5B metric tons by 2012.

Lets look at another source of CO2

Lets see 1 gallon of gasoline releases 19.4 pounds of CO2. The US fleet of 244M vehicles consumes about 137B gallons per year releasing 1.3B metric tons of CO2. NG releases about 14 pounds per gasoline gallon equivalent. Therefore replacing the US fleet with new NG vehicles makes no significant difference on CO2 emissions.

Now if we don't drive any cars all year then we pretty much stop all exports of wealth. That's the ticket we walk to work for a whole year.

Now basically what it boils down to there ain't no way on Gods green earth that the US will not have to buy air on the international market. We certainly can't leave our cars parked all year!

So cudo's to our stupid government. Unless you guys can come up with another way to eliminate 1.5B metric tons of CO2 emissions using the tools that the government has given us this is an impossible mission. The cap and tax bill is a foreign aid bill in disguise.

Lets look at an all electric vehicle fleet.

At 25% efficient ICE and 0.033 megawatt hours per GGE and replacing 137B gallons gasoline per year then 1.1B megawatt hours is required if the entire 244M US vehicle fleet were electric automobiles. The CO2 released would be reduce by 1.3B metric tons by elimination of gasoline consumption while CO2 released from coal electric generation would be 1.25 metric tons per megawatt hour or a total of 1.4B metric tons

Again switching to all electric cars using coal generation does not reduce the CO2 emissions.
Cost 244M clunkers * replaced by putt putts @ $20,000 = $4T

Wait a second now!!!! There is a way to do it by tugging on a rope not yet yanked in all these energy bills of the last 2 years.

Nearly 50% of the 110M US households rent their homes.

The 50% of households or 55M decision makers will not in significant numbers utilize the residential energy tax credits and install GSHP's in the numbers need to reduce CO2 by 1.5B metric tons reducing electric consumption by 1.2B megawatt hours But offering only the 10's of thousands of landlords incentives to increase up to 55 M apartments heating efficiencies to 900% and cooling efficiencies to 400% using solar assisted GSHP's then apartment electric consumption would be reduced by nearly 85% assuming that the vast majority of apartments use electric resistive heat at 100% efficiency and 10 SEER A/C at 150% efficiency.

50% of residential energy consumption is 1.4B megawatt hours and 85% of the is 1.2B megawatt hours and at 1.25 metric tons of CO2 per megawatt hour that comes to 1.5B metric tons of CO2 not released.and is the 2012 target.

Incentives for the small number of landlords is a much easier task.
Each GSHP installation costs $5,000 ($2000 for the indoor equipment and $3000 for the ground loop) then the price tag is 55M * $3,000 = $110B ( We only consider the cost of the ground loop because the cost of the indoor equipment would be borne because the upgrade would occur at the end of the useful life of the existing furnace and heater)


CONCLUSION

Well T. Boone now you have gone and done it. WINDMILLS and General Electric ARE THE CLEAR WINNER. NOT!

57,000 windmills producing 1.2B megawatt hours of electricity replacing release of 1.5B metric tons of CO2 by coal fired electric generating plants and only costing a total of $114B plus one or ten billion dollars for transmission lines is the cheapest over any other candidates to include

1. Other electric generation methods detailed in attached document.
2. An all NG US vehicle fleet
3. An all electric US vehicle fleet
4. Replacing apartments HVAC with GSHP's

THE SIDE EFFECT IS THAT WINDMILLS WILL BANKRUPT THE COAL BUSINESS.
OH WELL I GUESS.

ARE YOU DONE YET.

I AM NOT DONE WITH A GSHP SOLUTION!!!!!!
The cost of your windmill electricity is on par with coal electric generation.

IN OTHER WORDS YOUR WINDMILLS HAVE NOT REDUCED THE CONSUMERS COST OF ELECTRICITY.

A solar thermal assisted GSHP reduces the consumer cost of electricity by up to 85%.
So if a consumer was to make the decision it is clear that he would rather spend $110B on the GSHP ground loop (the cost of the indoor equipment would be spent anyway so should not be used in a comparison) and save 85% of electricity costs year after year rather than spend $114B plus on windmills and save nothing but the CO2

GSHP IS THE CLEAR WINNER.

GSHP's are Cheaper to build out, reduces consumers electric bill with payback year after year, meets the CO2 target and is made in the good old USA by freedom loving people that need to get their hands dirty and live in their home town doing it and not out in the T. Boone Docks of Texas somewhere.



PS
Hey T. Boone
WHAT ABOUT EXPORTING WEALTH ON FOREIGN OIL?. IT HAS BEEN OVER A YEAR AND YOU HAVEN'T ACCOMPLISHED THAT GOAL YET. AND THIS CAP AND TAX BILL IS NOT THE LAW OF THE LAND YET, EITHER


PSS
Hey Obama
You kept the cost of cap and Tax low to start just so that would motivate T. Boone to lay out the money for wind mills and to keep it painless early on for the consumer. But you haven't told the consumer that Cap and Tax for CO2 starts low and gets very expensive very quickly so that T. Boone can get hsi ROI. . Well if you are gambling on the consumer being stupid you are very wrong.

PSS
Hey T. Boone
I should mention that your wind mills are great for certain states that generate base load electricity from NG. And those states should see a reduction in electricity rates with your wind mills electricity when you can get it to them. And I will support your wind mills for those states. But at $0.066 per kilowatt hour, leave my state of Missouri alone.

NOTES: and CALCULATIONS

Lets see 1 gallon of gasoline releases 19.4 pounds of CO2. The US fleet of 244M vehicles consumes about 137B gallons per year releasing 1.3B metric tons of CO2. NG releases about 14 pounds per gasoline gallon equivalent. Therefore replacing the US fleet with new NG vehicles makes no significant difference on CO2 emissions.


The dead cat links
http://www.epa.gov/oms/climate/420f05001.htm
From this link 1 gallon gasoline when fully burned will release 19.4 pounds of CO2
isooctane (C8H18) has 2,421 grams per gallon of C and multiply this by the ratio of carbon in the molecule CO2 and converting units
Which is confirmed here as well.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/coefficients.html
From this link 1000 cuft NG when fully burned will release 117.5 pounds of CO2
We use a similar calculation for methane (CH4) except the units are in cuft
http://alternativefuels.about.com/od/resources/a/gge.htm
From this link we find equivalences in the BTU content of NG to gasoline
126 cuft of NG is equivalent to 1 gallon of regular gasoline
so 126/1000=x/117 solving for x= 126/1000*117 = 14.7 pounds of CO2
Can we assume ICE efficiency about the same gasoline vs CNG?
From this link we find the Honda GX an NG car has MPG of (City/Highway/Combined) 24 / 36 / 28
http://automobiles.honda.com/civic-gx/specifications.aspx
From this link we find the Honda DX an gasoline car has MPG of (City/Highway/Combined) 26 / 34 / 29
http://automobiles.honda.com/civic-coupe/specifications.aspx
YES we can assume ICE efficiency is about the same NG and gasoline and gasoline mileage is actually 8% better with gasoline

We can stop here because you claimed that NG cars released 80% less carbon.
clearly this is not the case. NG release only 24% less CO2 (19.4-14.7)/19.4 = 0.24
Now NG releases 80% fewer pollutants (NOx and SO2) pollutants in this case not including the non-polluting CO2.
You fell into the trap of words. CO2 is now a pollutant, is dirty to some.

confirmed the cat is dead
From this link we find NG release about 28% less CO2 than oil on a BTU basis
Which is close enough for government work to confirm the derivation above.
http://www.naturalgas.org/environment/naturalgas.asp
from the above link we also find NG is clean SO2 and NOx way down from coal and gasoline
and we can also safely conclude that CO2 released from burning NG helps the grass grow a lot.

from the above link -"Natural gas can be used in the transportation sector to cut down on these high levels of pollution from gasoline and diesel powered cars, trucks, and buses. In fact, according to the EPA, compared to traditional vehicles, vehicles operating on compressed natural gas have reductions in carbon monoxide emissions of 90 to 97 percent, and reductions in carbon dioxide emissions of 25 percent. Nitrogen oxide emissions can be reduced by 35 to 60 percent, and other non-methane hydrocarbon emissions could be reduced by as much as 50 to 75 percent. In addition, because of the relatively simple makeup of natural gas in comparison to traditional vehicle fuels, there are fewer toxic and carcinogenic emissions from natural gas vehicles, and virtually no particulate emissions. Thus the environmentally friendly attributes of natural gas may be used in the transportation sector to reduce air pollution."

Now for the student
This link reveals that the US consumes about 9M barrels of oil per day in 2007
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_dc_nus_mbblpd_a.htm
At 42 gallons per barrel of oil and 365 days in a year about 137B gallons per year
At 19.4 pounds of CO2 derived above gasoline consumption releases 1.3B metric tons of CO2.
1 metric ton is about 2000 pounds.
19.4 * 137B / 2000 = 1.3B metric tons of CO2.

If we replaced all gasoline consumption by NG
Then at 14.7 pounds of CO2 derived above in GGE NG consumption would release 1.0B metric tons of CO2.
1 metric ton is about 2000 pounds.
14.7 * 137B / 2000 = 1.0B metric tons of CO2.

So as to the question
If the US switched to NG vehicle fuel would the 2012 CO2 carbon reduction target of 1.5B metric tons mandated in the cap and tax?
The answer is clearly NO only 0.3B metric tons of CO2 reduction would be realized by the conversion to NG vehicles.

But given low labor and material cost of NGV conversions and price adder of NGV new vehicles
and the lower CO2 emissions
and given the lower cost of NG over gasoline
but reducing demand by other consumers of NG is essential to keep the NG cost low
then NGV's are win win, win, almost.

And further The answer is clearly NO
Because it is still against the law to do low cost NGV conversions so new NGV's will not make significant contribution to a near term (2012) CO2 reduction. The PP without low cost NGV conversions is not help period. No help to reduce imports of oil and no help to the Cap and tax mandate.



I didn't include in the derivation of the previous post the lower ICE efficiency using NG because I only had the EPA mileage for the Honda GX and DX production lines. If the 8% gas millage reduction for NG holds true across all ICE designs then the CO2 reductions resulting from NG fuel will be less than the 0.3B metric tons calculated.

david


The PP was to switch NG to vehicles and replace NG electric generation with wind mills.
So as to the broader question
Does the PP address all the CO2 reduction targets mandated in the cap and tax?

This link reveals that About 29% of CO2 releasing US electricity generation is from NG the balance is from coal and oil.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table1_1.html
Given that coal/oil plant is about 30% efficient while most of the NG plants are about 45% efficient.
Yes the combined cycle NG plants can acheive 60% efficiency but the population in the generating fleet is low.
Noting that Efficiency is directly proportional to CO2 release.

This link reveals that about 2.5B metric tons of CO2 is released in electric generation
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat5p1.html

Solving the equations
71% * 2.5B + (45%-30%) * 2.5 = 2.15 metric tons CO2 from US coal electric generation
29% * 2.5B - (45%-30%) * 2.5 = 0.35B metric tons CO2 from US NG electric generation

So if the PP eliminates NG electrical generation and replaces it with wind mills then CO2 reduction of 0.35B metric tons would be realized.
That answer again is clearly NO. The PP can only reduce CO2 by 0.6B metric tons.

But as I stated the truth a long time ago wind mils replace base load generation ie. coal, nuclear, hydro not the peak load generation NG.
This link reveals a cross section of the states electricity generation
http://www.eia.doe.gov/fuelelectric.html
(See the map on right and click the state and then click the .xls file at table 5)

Missouri NG generation is 0.5% of total generation
Arizona NG generation is 3.2% of total generation
Florida NG generation is 13.7% of total generation
Massachusetts NG generation is 15% of total generation
New York NG generation is 16.3% of total generation
California NG generation is 44% of total generation


I know for a fact the Missouri NG electric generation is purely peak load.
And Arizona NG electric generation is mostly peak load. (heavier Air condition use increases peak load some what)
Clearly Florida and New York and California are deriving a large percentage of base load generation from NG
Florida and New York and California elected to use NG over coal for base load.

This link reveals the population of the US states
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population
These links reveals the state residential CO2 emissions and methodology
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/excel/tbl_statesector.xls
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/pdf/statemethod.pdf

Florida population 18M, CO2 1.9M = 0.1 metric ton per person
Arizona population 6.5M, CO2 2.1M = 0.32 metric ton per person
California population 36.7M, CO2 28M = 0.77 metric ton per person
Missouri population 6M, CO2 7M = 1.16 metric ton per person
New York population 19.5M, CO2 39M = 2 metric ton per person
Massachusetts population 6.5M, CO2 14.8M = 2.3 metric ton per person

Now CO2 emissions are effected by
A. amount of gasoline consumption for commuting
B. climate require home heating and air conditioning
C. and effected most greatly by the generation from nuclear and hydro
D. So if you use NG to heat your home you will get up 95% conversion efficiency
E. while electric resistive heating from coal is less than 30% efficient because of line losses.

As you should see wind mills replacement of NG generation won't help reduce CO2 for
FL or AZ ir CA as generation is predominately nuclear and hydro
CA might realize some benefit from cost reduction
MO as very little generation is from NG
But NY and MA would see significant reductions of CO2 and and electricity price

So the PP wind mills do nothing for FL, AZ, MO and little for CA but can significantly help NY, and MA.
From this cross section representing the various current energy generating mixes

It can be fairly safely concluded that the PP of replacing NG generation with wind mills overall is not a viable proposition.

So as I have said on numerous occasions replacing NG electric generation with wind mills to reduce demand keeping the cost of NG constant when it is fuel for cars just is unworkable and now I have shown that it is unworkable to significantly reduce CO2 reduction as well.

So TBP's only recourse to create a market for his wind mills is to tax the crap out of coal
But then TBP would not be one that is looking out for the peoples interests, Would he?
So then I ask why does he have a national campaign for wind mills when there are only effective in the NE states?


david

TELL'M WHAT YOU TOLD'M

I will tell you again about the failings of the PP switch of vehicles to NG as I have told you for over a year now.
1. Low cost NGV conversions must be permitted else oil imports won't be reduced in TBP's life time.
2. The utilities or city municipalities own the local NG pipeline and construction of competing pipelines will face insurmountable road blocks.
3. The NG utilities have a solid residential base of customers for home heating and don't need new customers and have limited capacity in those distribution pipes to push through more NG for NGV's anyway
4. The NG utilities therefore have no motivation to install compressors for NGV's except in selected and few convenient locations.
5. 300% to 900% efficient Electric ground source heat pumps (GSHP) replacing NG heaters is the only way to reduce local demand of NG which will motivate the NG utilities to market NG for V's having the excess capacity in their local pipeline infrastructure.
6. And now I have just concluded that diverting NG from electrical generation won't reduce demand enough to keep NG prices low and now it dawns that the utilities don't get vacant capacity in the local pipelines but only in the out of way places where NG electrical plants used to be.

I will tell you again the failings of the PP switch to wind mills to replace NG electrical generation as I have told you for over a year now.
1. NG electrical generation is for supplying peak loads in almost all states.
2. Wind mills by their nature want to generate electricity continuously when the wind blows which is ideal for base load.
3. The only states that use NG for base load generation are in the north east far away from the wind corridor.
4. So replacing NG electrical generation will not significantly reduce the demand for NG freeing it up for use in NGV's

And now I will repeat that PP fails to address the issue of CO2 emission amelioration
1. A vehicle fleet wide Switch to NGV's will only reduce CO2 by 0.3B metric tons.
2. A NG generator fleet wide switch to wind mills will only reduce CO2 by 0.05B metric tons.
3. The CO2 savings are only in the NE a long haul away from TBP's wind corridor.

And I will tell you again that the only solution to get off foreign oil and to not effect NG demand and now meet the 2012 CO2 cap is
1. Switch some NG residential and commercial users to electric GSHP's
2. Switch some electric residential and commercial resistive heat users to GSHP's
3. Allow low cost NGV conversions of the US fleet NOW!

This can all be accomplished in 4 years
1. Costing only $275B for 55M GSHP retrofits cost
2. Costing only $366B for 244M NGV conversions cost
3. but the US may be unable to borrow that money internationally because the US would be reducing oil income of those countries
4. and their might be a possible reduction in coal consumption and production and jobs depending on ratio of NG vs electric resistive heat replacement by GSHP's
5. Injecting stimulus at the base of the economy, the individual, where it puts lots of people back to work with money in their pockets
6. And the vast majority of those dollars is kept in the local economy as it is Installation and digging trenches and all GSHP and NGV equipment is made in the USA
7. for a total cost of $641B or $5,872 per each of 110M households.
8. AND CAN BE DONE WITH VERY SIMPLE LEGISLATION

So in summary
1. cap and tax will cause you electricity bill to "skyrocket" per obama and could cost each family upwards of $3000 per year
2. While a GSHP solution puts one time income of $5,872 in each of 110M US households.over 4 years
3. And reduces each household utility bill by up to 85% year after year
4. And meets the 2012 CO2 target cap.and more depending on the penetration of GSHP to the other 55M households and commercial buildings
5. Personally I don't want 57,000 wind mills across the plains to just go extinct like the buffalo.
6. There is a place for wind mills and that is here and here
7. And more than enough wind energy to completely replace NG base load electric generation in the NE
8. The lake effect snows of western NY my be reduced to a fraction of todays.
9 and for the future CO2 caps the wind mills in the wind corridor will be very valuable to supply energy to the electric vehicles in 2020-2030 traversing the western plains delivering products from sea to shining sea.

So do you want a cap and tax and have your electricity bill "skyrocket" and leave your community impoverished.
Or would you rather have income of $5,872 in each of 110M US households.over 4 years
and your electricity bill drop by up to 85%.
and meet the 2012 CO2 target,
not exporting wealth internationally in the form of oil imports and carbon credits.

Get involved in the real science not the political non-science.

Support PP members against Cap and Tax.
http://push.pickensplan.com/group/ppmembersagainstcapandtax


david