Technical Aspects of the Pickens Plan

“What’s Your Plan?” Petition
1. "What is congress's and President elects plan to reduce our dependence on foreign oil?" Pickens has a 'Plan'!

The Congress passed with the bailout, various tax credits and other incentives to foster and motivate home energy efficiency and renewable energy purchases by the consumer. These incentives are matched or enhanced by various states and various utility companies. See http://www.dsireusa.org/
There are various tax credits and other incentives to foster and motivate alternative fuel vehicle purchases http://www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/progs/fed_summary.cgi?afdc/US/0

Pickens Plan Talking Points
2. "There are 244 million cars and trucks in America. To end dependence on foreign oil, we have to use something other than foreign oil to run those vehicles."

Since the spring Congress has done nothing to reduce our dependence on foreign oil that we put into these 244 million cars and trucks in America.

There are no tax credits to convert these vehicles to run on Made in America natural gas or ethanol.or propane. There are no inexpensive natural gas and ethanol and propane conversion kits. There is no waiver process to EPA vehicle fuel certification regulations.

So what is congress's and President elects plan to convert these vehicles?

We can't wait to purchase new vehicles. It will require about 14.2 years at the rate of 16 million new cars per year to replace these 244 million vehicles. All the while consuming foreign oil to run those vehicles.

http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_12.html
http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/2005/html/table_01_11.html

Congresses plan must include:
"Requiring EPA to allow companies that make NGV conversion systems to use less
expensive methods to comply with on-board diagnostic system-related requirements,
and otherwise reduce barriers to the introduction of vehicle conversion systems that
facilitate the use of alternative fuels." http://www.ngvc.org/pdfs/Summary07NGVLegProp.pdf

The Pickens Plan
3. "America is addicted to foreign oil."
America consumes oil and that consumption has been consistent with American population growth.
Consistent with raising and supporting a family and living life to the fullest.

4. "As imports grow and world prices rise, the amount of money we send to foreign nations every year is soaring"

Source: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/www/press.html
Source: http://www.globalpolicy.org/socecon/crisis/tradedeficit/tables/trade.htm

5. "Building wind facilities in the corridor that stretches from the Texas panhandle to North Dakota could produce 20% of the electricity for the United States at a cost of $1 trillion. It would take another $200 billion to build the capacity to transmit that energy to cities and towns."

Other regions of the US that are prime candidates for wind power generation.

Michigan - Source: http://push.pickensplan.com/stateHome.php/MI

Ohio - Source: http://push.pickensplan.com/stateHome.php/OH

Oregon - Source: http://push.pickensplan.com/stateHome.php/OR

Rhode Island - Source: http://push.pickensplan.com/stateHome.php/RI

Wind Resource Maps
Source: http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/wind_maps.asp
Push Pickens Plan Map - http://push.pickensplan.com/

6. "A cheap new replacement for foreign oil. Natural gas and bio-fuels are the only domestic energy sources used for transportation."

The US proven reserves of oil will be depleted in 8 years, blue curve in chart above.. The oil produced in the US today exactly equals the oil consumed in US industries, the brown curve. In May when the price of gas really skyrocketed was the day we began importing oil for the US industrial needs. If we drilled we would find enough oil in the unproven reserves to supply are industrial needs and transportation needs and all our uses of oil of about 21,000,000 million barrels per day. We would exhaust our entire supply of proven and unproven reserves of oil by 2028. See the chart at the right. The green curve show the remaining proven and unproven reserves year by year as it is depleted by US annual consumption , the blue curve. If your are 29 years old today, the proven oil reserves, all the oil that the oil companies can access, will be gone when you are 36 years old. A 29 year old kid would be 49 years old when all the now known proven and unproven reserves of US oil are gone.

T. Boone Pickens says " We can't drill our way out this problem". The problem being, obtaining fuel for our vehicles. And this is true.

The US proven reserves of natural gas will be depleted in 8 years, red curve in chart above.. The natural gas produced in the US today exactly equals all of the natural gas consumed in US, the brown curve shows the CNG to heat homes, generate electricity and to power industry.If your are 29 years old today, the proven natural gas reserves , all the natural gas that the oil companies can access, will be gone when you are 36 years old.

This made in America natural gas can fuel our vehicles while America develops the ethanol infrastructure or the electric car infrastructure or whatever course America decides to take. The US reserves of natural gas are massive. At the current rate of US consumption the brown curve in chart at right The unproven reserves of natural gas, turquoise curve, will last until 2055. A 29 year old kid today would be the ripe old age of 77 when all the unproven reserves of natural gas are gone.

T. Boone Pickens says "build wind mills to replace natural gas used to generate electricity"
T. Boone Pickens says "use Made in America natural gas to fuel Americas vehicles".
T. Boone Pickens says " Drill, Drill, Drill" We have to drill and secure US natural gas from the unproven reserves to make the transition.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_pres_dcu_NUS_a.htm
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_crdsnd_adc_mbbl_a.htm
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_enr_sum_dcu_NUS_a.htm
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm


T. Boone Pickens’ Energy Independence Pledge
7. "Dependent on the unstable foreign nations for nearly 70% of the oil we use each day."

Made in the USA oil goes to provide feedstock for US industries. Over the years any excess was used to make gasoline. The graph above shows in yellow the US produced oil, while in blue is the oil required by US industries, on the other scale in red is the money we spend daily on imported oil. This data is all from the EIA. The demand data is trended in straight line based on history of increasing demand while the supply was trended in straight line equal to last known data point since supply is at maximum output now. And proven reserves of oil will run out in 2017.

T. Boone Pickens says " Drill, Drill, Drill" We have to drill in the US to secure US oil for US industries.

Now with no investment and nobody buying and no savings and no economy
then layoffs
then industrial consumption is down,
then vehicle fuel consumption is down,
then price is down,
but the end is nigh in 2017, unless we Drill Here, Drill Now!

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_snd_d_nus_mbbl_a_cur.htm
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_a.htm

8. "Buying foreign oil represents the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind."
Wealth is real assets, cash, gold, real estate, inventory, machinery, and the like.
The US has been transferring these real assets for oil for our vehicles.
We could have, built hospitals, bridges, power plants, you name the infrastructure to sustain our living right here in the US.
But we are spending it on oil so that those foreign countries can build their infrastructure.
The below chart is the US trade Balance history.

Source: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/www/press.html
Source: http://www.globalpolicy.org/socecon/crisis/tradedeficit/tables/trade.htm

The chart below is straight from the the Federal Reserve. The linked Federal Reserve chart plots savings rate as % of disposable income versus year. I have plotted the savings rate data against age. On the upper scale is the old guy scale, age 57 in 2008. On the lower scale is the young kid scale, age 29 in 2008. The data show that the old guy at age 29 saved on average 10% of his disposable income while the young kid at age 29 saved less than 1% of his disposable income.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PSAVERT?cid=112
http://www.wam.umd.edu/~toh/spectrum/Differentiation.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balance_of_trade#Against
http://mises.org/story/2029

The chart below illustrates the wealth exportation. This chart shows the rates of change of savings rate and the trade deficit, 1st derivative, from 1991 to 2008. These data shows that as the trade deficit is reflected in the savings rate nearly exactly. The more products the US imports the less we save. This correlations has been known to exist by economists for years. These economists also say that the US savings is held by the foreign producer to be returned to the US in the future Well the future is Now!

Now China is saving to the tune of $2 trillion as shown in the chart below.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-10/14/content_7105710.htm
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4AB2P620081112
And other countries have huge cash reserves
http://www.oef.com/Free/pdfs/swf(jan08).pdf
See also figure 23 in this document regarding the food pricing and corn ethanol connection which does not exist
http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/WRS0801/WRS0801.pdf

9. This plan must include proven American technology and resources; the development of new energy sources; and the expansion and modernization of the national electrical grid to transport renewable energy to homes and businesses.

How does electricity enter into this plan?
And just what are the proven American technology and resources?
Pickens says build wind mills to replace natural gas electricity power generation plants so that natural gas can fuel Americas vehicles.

There are other electricity demand factors to consider.
The chart below shows the real estate bubble in terms of new home construction and population. The chart shows that more homes were built than have been needed based on historical trends.

http://www.census.gov/const/startsusintenta.pdf
http://www.census.gov/const/www/quarterly_starts_completions_cust.xls

Now we should see a electricity demand bubble as well.. The chart below does not show a bubble. This is because apartment vacancy rates went up http://www.danter.com/STATISTICS/rentvac.htm as new home occupancy went up. The new homes electricity breaker was turned on while the apartments breaker switch was turned off. But then you ask why has electricity prices gone up in the last couple of years? The chart below shows that natural gas costs to the utility companies has quadrupled since 2003.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat7p2.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat4p5.html

The below chart shows that the electric utilities have nearly tripled there natural gas consumption while the price for natural gas has doubled.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat4p5.html

While, coal consumption and costs to the utility companies has remained virtually constant for 13 years, as the chart below shows.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat4p5.html

And this is why electricity rates have gone down over the last 18 years, inflation adjusted to 2006, and are just tilting upwards. Reliable data has not yet been compiled by the EIA for 2007 and 2008 to show the electricity rate increases but some of your electricity bills do. In Missouri electricity rates have barely changed.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/st_profiles/sept08ca.xls
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/st_profiles/sept08az.xls
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/st_profiles/sept08ny.xls
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/st_profiles/sept08fl.xls
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/st_profiles/sept08mo.xls

10. I join with T. Boone Pickens calling for an Energy Independence Plan enacted within the first 100 days of the new administration.

The Plan must consider the Global economy and these times of limited resources and 6 billion people. The Plan must creating wealth and create abundance for you and your family and do this fairly and in the shortest period of time. You can either choose to believe in one of the energy issues, global warming, energy independence, personal off-grid independence or any of the individual hot button topics but in the final analysis you have to face the facts and all the facts.

Now either the Federal administration may act or may not. And the action may or not be in the best interests of the state or region. Energy independence can be achieved for Americans by Americans. Each region is unique as to its energy resources and its energy consumption. While gasoline prices have fallen precipitously the month of November. Do not be lulled as the world demands energy and the low prices will not hold. This is especially true if the US economy recovers and the US demand for oil and the worlds demand resumes to produce the products that the worlds population wants. Electricity rates will follow the price and consumption of natural gas by the utility companies.

Rep. Steven Tilley given me an invitation to present the case for the Energy Independence for Missouri to the Missouri COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT. You can initiate the same or similar response in your state by your state representatives.

Energy independence can be achieved for Missourians by Missourians. The actions are:

1. Overrule EPA to allow Missouri companies to make NGV and ethanol and propane conversion systems to use less expensive methods to comply with on-board diagnostic system-related requirements, and otherwise reduce barriers to the introduction of vehicle conversion systems that facilitate the use of compressed natural gas [1] (Natural gas is $1.68 per gallon while gasoline is $3.75 per gallon) ( and ethanol is 10% cheaper than gasoline on an energy equivalent basis)
2. Provide a generous tax credit for ground source heat pumps (GSHP) to replace gas or electric hot water heaters, furnaces, and air conditioners.
3. Provide a generous tax credit for CNG and ethanol and propane vehicle conversions.
4. Fund rebate and repayment plan for installation of GSHP and CNGV conversions to be administered by local utility companies[2][3].Retirees on fixed income who don't pay taxes but who consume natural gas, gasoline, and electricity can upgrade to more energy efficient cars, appliances , furnaces, air conditioners, and home insulation and then contribute to achieving energy independence. (home heating using GSHP is 1/2 cost of natural gas heating $0.1356 per cubic foot)
5. Guarantee financing of 26M MWhr solar thermal electric generating plant. Construction to be completed in 2 years. located in 1000 foot right-of-way along I55 between Cape Girardeau and New Madrid and in 1000 foot right-of-way along I44 between Springfield and Joplin. (fuel cost for solar thermal energy is FREE and these two plants will supply all the electricity needed to heat Missouri homes)
6. Repeal subsidies for todays photo voltaic PV solar cells (if any).

Basically, as
Demand for CNG for vehicles goes up!
Demand for CNG for home heat goes down!
Demand for Electricity for home cooling goes down!
Demand for CNG Electricity generation goes down!
Demand for imported gasoline goes down!
Demand for biodiesel and ethanol fuel goes up!

Missouri Jobs to convert vehicles goes up!
Missouri Jobs for power plant construction goes up!
Missouri Jobs for GSHP installation goes up!
Missouri Jobs for biodiesel and ethanol fuel production goes up!
Missouri Jobs to manufacture new vehicles are restored!
Land owners (farmers) income will increase.
Natural gas price and electricity price will be unaffected.
Missouri tax base will increase allowing taxes to be decreased!

Missouri can become or remain a net exporter to other states of
Electrical energy
Biodiesel and ethanol fuel
Missouri Oil

Missouri electrical companies net revenue will be beneficially affected.
The Public service commission regulatory infrastructure is preserved.
Business and labor organization in Missouri will be beneficially affected.
And reducing electrical demand means
That utilities don't need to build new plants,
That utilities don't need to operate existing NG generating plants as frequently,
and don't need new transmission lines,
and don't need all that fuel
and don't need all the other resources to operate and maintain and build them.

Wealth and abundance will have been created.

The key to the home energy family budget and for the regional generating and the national electrical grid is reduce consumption. The utility companies and the State regulatory bodies and the national electrical grid has been good for Americans for the last 18 years of price decreases and it will be good for the US for another 18 years if Americans would divorce themselves of the more is better mindset. Building more electricity generating plants on your roof top is folly when it is at the expense of good home energy efficiency strategies.

------ Made in America Batteries are a solution for those that get charged high peak rates and low off peak rates.
------ Made in America 85% reflective window film save as much electricity as PV's generate.
------ Made in America Insulation to R-24 walls and R-50 attic retains as much energy as PV's generate.
------ Made in America GSHP's will save as much energy as todays PV generate.
------ Made in America Solar thermal panels collect about the same amount of energy as todays PV's generate.
------ Made in America attic space energy capture is about the same amount of energy as todays PV's generate.

The chart below shows an upper Midwest home energy costs using a 9 SEER A/C and a natural gas furnace and a hot water heater is replaced by a solar assisted GSHP.

The chart below shows the effect of the Pickens Plan on oil and natural gas consumption with drilling the unproven reserves and using those two resources for Americas energy needs for vehicles and industry. The NG for vehicles consumption reaches a peak and falls off because it is assumed that another energy source is found for vehicles like ethanol, electricity, or some other fuel.

The below chart shows the effect of electricity consumption when all the inefficient A/C's, gas furnaces, and gas hot water heaters are replaced by solar assisted GSHP's. The dip in electricity consumption is a result of this switch to geothermal energy using a GSHP while it begins to increase with the assumption that vehicles are plug in electric powered from the electric grid.
TBD

I am a Conscientious Pickens Environmentalist (CPE)
I will not stand idly by while Americas wealth is wasted on todays PV. A hoax that has been foisted on America by someone, I don't know who but I can guess.

Here is how todays PV fad all concocted by those people transpired
1. They played on the fear of global warming forcing utility companies to abandon coal and switch to natural gas generation. which did not markedly do one thing to reduce carbon or pollution.
2. They played on the hate for local utility companies raising electricity rates as a result of natural gas prices.
3. The real estate boom exacerbated this situation. Homes were built as quick and as cheap as they could during a time when energy costs were low and home energy efficiency was not given the attention that it should.
4. Drafty, 2X4 stick frame, R-11, vinyl sided, unwrapped exterior wall construction
5. Little or no attic insulation
6. Uninsulated ductwork passing through unconditioned space
7. Energy inefficient HVAC systems and domestic hot water system.
8. Electricity and energy pig homes that looked very pretty and having excellent workmanship counted in the millions and millions.
9. They pushed through a democrat congress huge unlimited 30% tax credit and incentives for todays PV used in those grossly inefficient personal residences.
10. You are made to think that you have shielded yourself from electricity rate increases by PV dealers. But this is a false.security
11. They might have bought votes by selling you todays PV hoax solution
12. They will increase your electricity rates by adding to your tax bill to pay those tax credits and incentives for todays PV
13. They will try to convince you to pay your electricity bill in one lump sum to purchase your electricity 20 to 40 years in the future using todays PV.
14. Todays PV is:
Hyped up - you see PV on more and more commercial buildings. Why? See next entry.
Intangible asset - LEED certification for sustainable architecture allocates dollar value to "corporate image" to offset cost of PV
High carbon footprint - The embodied energy in PV ($7 per watt) comes from fossil fuel for their manufacture in China.
subversive - The allure of FREE ENERGY ignoring the fact that harvesting the energy costs energy
imported, - 10% of PV is manufactured in the US. The US consumed 20% (2006). Same old pattern. Higher in 2008, I'm sure.
$7 per watt, - You have to put about 7000 watts on a roof top to generate an inefficient homes electricity, $49,000
30 to 40 year payback, - Dividing $49,000 by the cost of grid electricity equals the payback (varies by the amount of sunshine)
Not renewable resource - A whole high tech industrial infrastructure and $7/KW of fossil fuel to manufacture todays PV.
Not Green - It costs more to sow PV than what you reap from PV.
Not sustainable - PV requires inexpensive Hydro electricity to manufacture rather than expensive electricity derived from PV.
toxic, - Arsenic, indium, bromine, gallium and etc all the elements used in the manufacture of PV need disposal.
energy robbing, - The energy was stolen from the grid to make the PV to generate the replacement energy to put on the grid.
30 year old technology - no real progress in PV efficiencies has been made since their invention.
subsidized - nearly 75% funded by government and utility companies to put on peoples roof tops
utility company rip off - With PV generation the operation and maintenance costs are born by the PV owner.
Environmentalist heart throb - A mindless belief in PV
government hope plan - Government hopes that billions of dollars spent on PV will solve the energy crisis.
hoax - at current electricity rates the payback period for PV is greater than the useful life of the PV
Job exporting - Solar thermal panels, just as efficient as PV, was a successful American cottage industry until the PV subsidies.
Globe Warming - nitrogen trifluoride.concentrations are rising by 11 percent a year as result of semiconductor PV manufacture. it’s 17,000 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (and lasts five times longer).
SUV of solar - its big, its expensive, its wasteful, it has no utility, their should be a law against PV

What about all those Americans who can't afford the PV????????
What are those Americans going to do to pay their ever increasing electrical bill?????????
What are those Americans going to do to pay their ever increasing tax bill for the PV subsidy????????

Someone said that they are going to bankrupt the coal industry if it doesn't clean up coal (cleaner than coal is now). To clean up already clean coal more makes coal fired plant twice as expensive to build and operate , nearly all of US electricity is produced by clean fossil fuels so the price of electricity will double but the plan is to reimburse most people for their higher heating costs which does nothing for conservation. And why pour money into cleaning up coal when America has to switch to todays solar thermal power plants or to tomorrows PV, ASAP.

If you agree with points 1 thorugh 13, you are a conscientious Pickens environmentalist who believes in balanced, pragmatic approaches to decreasing the costs of energy with a goal of maintaining the current clean environment who also support The principals of the Pickens plan.

Stop importing energy
Stop exporting wealth
Promote made in the America wind mills
and the corollary
promote other made in America energy.

In acknowledgment that our neighbors to the north and south
Where electrical grids and pipelines cross those borders
Where oil and gas are obtained and refined products are shipped.
And very beneficially contribute to the energy solution
but are part of the energy problem on this regional scale
let us say
Promote made in the North America wind mills
and the corollary
promote other made in North America energy.

Become a conscientious Pickens environmentalist (CPE)

Cap and Trade
I will not support anyone or any organization that lives under the below quoted delusions. I will not be party to this thievery.

"The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the monetary value of emissions permits created by a cap on global warming pollution in the United States would range between $50 billion and $300 billion generated each year (in 2007 dollars) by 2020.

Deciding how many of these permits will be sold and how many will be given away for free is one of the most vital components of a successful cap-and-trade system.

The permits’ valuable dividends will, if given away, provide massive windfall profits for polluters, or, if auctioned, generate capital for major public investment programs to ensure an effective, equitable, and expeditious transition to a clean energy economy.

In addition, revenue from the program would also flow to low- and lower-middle income families to help them cope with rising energy costs." http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/06/auction_revenue_repo...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
First, money is not generated it is a back door tax on 110 million US households ranging from $454 to $2724 per year. The utility companies pay and pass along these costs to the consumer.

Second, Europe has thrown this cap and trade political non-science out and are using closely managed feed in tariffs.

Third, They generate capital for the US government which is doled out at their whim.

Forth, Revenue flowing to low- and lower-middle income families does nothing to promote conservation and implementation of energy saving actions. Like any one of the energy tax credits and incentives given here http://www.dsireusa.org/

What this does is centralize the decision making. Leaving the distributed wealth of individual knowledge and entrepreneurship, and PUC's untapped.

Go deal with OPEC leave my utilities alone.
cites
http://www.iea-pvps.org/
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/renewables/017406.pdf
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/solarphotv/table2_19.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/pdf/electricity.pdf#page=3

Attached is the document that describes the technical aspects of the achieving energy independence for Missouri.
Attached is the document that describes batteries are a solution for those that get charged high peak rates and low off peak rates.
Attached is the document that describes 85% reflective window film
Attached is the document that describes Insulating to R-24 walls and R-50 attic
Attached is the document that describes GSHP's and solar assisted GSHP's
Attached is the document that describes Solar thermal panels.
Attached is the document that describes Capturing attic space energy

Attached is the document that fully describes converting your car to CNG
Attached is the document that fully describes converting your car to ethanol.
Attached is the document that fully describes converting your car to propane.

Attached is the document that fully describes all the negative things about todays PV.

Cordially
David Epps
Cape Girardeau, MO

[1] http://www.ngvamerica.org/pdfs/Summary07NGVLegProp.pdf
[2] https://www2.ameren.com/residential/grRebatePage_Res.aspx
[3] https://www2.ameren.com/ACMSContent/Rates/Rates_umgs75otpromo.pdf

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