PickensPlan

Todd McKissick

Supplemental Plan To The Pickens Plan - It's time to power up this movement!

Mr. Picken's is looking for a plan to complete his energy proposal. Here's my contribution for review. Attached is the comprehensive Excel version covering Resources, Funding, Consumer Cost, Job Growth, and Grid Stability. For those of you staying here, I'll post the Supply Mix (Appologies in advance on the formatting).

Let's get a plan agreed upon and get a group of people behind it so we can move this game to the next level. I want to hear how you would change it and see if we can refine it into something workable.

Domestic Renewable Energy Plan
Supplemented by:
12% Natural Gas
29% Oil

Electrical ------------------------------ 176.5%
Large Wind farms ------------------------ 18.0%
Single Large Wind Turbines -------------- 1.5%
Remote small/med Wind ------------------- 0.5%
>>>>>Wind Subtotal ---------------------- 20.0%
Large PV projects, remote --------------- 1.0%
Distributed PV, grid tied, no storage --- 2.5%
Dist. PV, off grid ---------------------- 0.4%
Dist. PV,grid tied w/storage ------------ 0.1%
>>>>PV Subtotal ------------------------- 4.0%
Large CSP Solar plants ------------------ 12.0%
Large CSP solar w/storage --------------- 4.0%
Dist. Comm scale CHCP w/storage --------- 15.0%
Dist Solar Thermal, DHW & solar cooling - 13.0%
Dist. Solar Thermal, CHCP w/storage ----- 20.0%
>>>>Solar Thermal subtotal -------------- 64.0%
Hydro (current) ------------------------- 9.0%
Biomass --------------------------------- 3.0%
Natural Gas Backup ---------------------- 5.0%
Vechicle-2-Grid Storage contribution ---- 5.0%
Geothermal, large scale ----------------- 3.0%
Ocean, OTEC ----------------------------- 1.0%
Ocean, Tidal ---------------------------- 2.0%
Nuclear --------------------------------- 20.0%
Natural Gas (for grid stability) -------- 10.0%
>>>>>Other subtotal --------------------- 58.0%
Conservation ---------------------------- 7.0%
Electrical efficiency (appliance based) - 2.5%
Electrical conceptual efficiencies ------ 11.0%
Gains from grid conservation ------------ 10.0%
>>>>Electrical Reductions subtotal ------ 24.0%

Vehicular Transportation ---------------- 127.1%
BEV (light duty) ------------------------ 12.0%
HEV (light duty) ------------------------ 2.6%
PHEV (light duty) ----------------------- 6.9%
V2G (light duty) ------------------------ 9.2%
>>>>Vehicle Subtotal ------------------------ 30.7%
Rapid Transit (rail, large) ------------- 6.0%
Rapid Transit (Maglev, personal) -------- 18.0%
>>>>Mass Transit subtotal ------------------- 24.0%
Algae based Diesel (heavy) -------------- 10.0%
Algae based Gasoline (mixed) ------------ 6.7%
Ethanol, existing ----------------------- 5.0%
Ethanol, cellulosic --------------------- 12.0%
Biodiesel, WVO -------------------------- 0.5%
Biodiesel, Experimental ----------------- 0.2%
>>>>>Bio Subtotal ---------------------------- 34.4%
CNG, including conversions -------------- 18.0%
Legacy vehicles on oil ------------------ 20.0%

Air Transportation ---------------------- 100.0%
Transferred from Excess Automotive ------ 9.1%
Algae based LL100 (Private aviation) ---- 10.0%
Algae based Jet-A (Private aviation) ---- 0.5%
Algae based Jet-A (Commercial) ---------- 13.0%
Legacy planes on oil -------------------- 67.4%

Rail Transportation --------------------- 100.0%
Transferred from Excess Automotive ------ 18.0%
Reduction from conservation ------------- 11.0%
Reduction in coal/oil transport --------- 51.0%
Legacy rail on oil ---------------------- 20.0%

Remember, there's more information in the actual spreadsheet like how it puts over 2 million people to work or how using 80% of the Waste Vegetable Oil only contributes 0.5% to the mix. Also, my assumptions were that an external expense gets charged to that which benefits the most.

Glossary of Terms
BEV---------Battery Electric Vehicle
CHCP-------Combined Heat, Cooling and Power
CNG---------Compressed Natural Gas
Comm------Commercial
CSP---------Concentrated Solar Power (Electricity from solar thermal)
DHW--------Domestic Hot Water
Dist.---------Distributed
HEV---------Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Hydro-------Hydroelectric Generation (dams, run of river)
JET-A-------Aviation jet fuel
LL100-------Light aviation fuel
Maglev------Magnetic Levitation (frictionless support system)
OTEC-------Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion
PHEV-------Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicle
PV------------Photovoltaic Cell Panels
V2G----------Vehicle To Grid (PHEV used as short term grid storage)
WVO--------Waste Vegetable Oil (commercial)


NationalEnergyMix.xls

Tags: energy, plan, renewable

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Todd McKissick Comment by Todd McKissick on August 16, 2008 at 7:26am
Ty, That's a common sentiment that does have lots of merit. I used to think that way also, but when I got deeper into it, I found that T. Boone was correct when he said that we can do that part now. What he meant was that the Big 3 already make those vehicles right now so we can start buying them in say a matter of 2-3 months. There's no way we can get that many electric cars built that soon. So, while you're absolutely correct that it's a temp solution, it has another benefit.

If you consider that $700 Billion that Mr. Pickens keep mentioning in light of that money being a cost to us, anything that cuts that cost today will help us finance anything else we want to do. Try this one out. Save $100 Billion THIS YEAR to make electric vehicles by selling a bunch of "Phills" and buying cars that other countries already use. Does that sound different? It's really the same thing said with different emphasis.
Todd McKissick Comment by Todd McKissick on August 16, 2008 at 7:14am
Fair enough, Burgess. By displaying "over 100%", I'm showing that the various forms of electrical generation will total up to 176% of what we now generate. In other words, we will need to create 76% more electricity than we do now and that will be generated by the sources listed. Those individual sources will each play a role equal to the percentage beside them.

The first two groups in the automobile section are all vehicles that require electricity to power them. This is where that electricity will go. From this, you could make the statement that we need 76% more electricity, from all the renewable sources listed above, to remove 54.7% of our vehicles off of oil. (That's the total of those two automotive groups.)

If you notice that the automotive section is over 100% also, that's because it is giving its excess to the airline and rail industries. They each have a line that shows receipt from automotive excess that totals 27.1% which is what automotive had to give them. The main example of this is that biodiesel can be used in both planes and trains.

I could give you an English version translation for each of these, but it would be roughly the same for each one. We need to increase all of our renewables (of which I listed the top ones only) to end up reducing our oil use by 71%. Since we can supply all of that oil domestically and still have 1% to spare, we won't need to import anymore. This is all in concert with the Pickens Plan to shift the natural gas from electricity to vehicles.

I believe that only with a major push to do this could we accomplish it in 10 years, but 15 really gives us enough time to make it doable.
Ty Comment by Ty on August 16, 2008 at 6:56am
I do not understand the reasoning behind Natural Gas as a fleet vehicle fuel. It may be readily available now, but as with oil, it's a finite resource. We should truely consider going to electric vehicles ASAP. We could generate electricity from various renewable sources enabling our personnel vehicles to be recharged at a fair cost. Natural Gas, once again is only a temp solution. We will be right back to this spot again if we go to lean heavily upon it. The question I know some will ask is: How much NG do we have and how long will it last?
There will be varying numbers on this but the idea is not really solving the transportation issue, it is just putting it off or delaying it as you will. Oh, I know some will say it buys us time. We have the time right now, lets do this right this time and not leave it to our childrens children to deal with the same mess as we have now IMHO.
BurgessKJ Comment by BurgessKJ on August 15, 2008 at 11:09pm
OK, lots of numbers. Anything over %100 of anything is suspect. There can be an increase over previous amounts, but 'Per-cent' usually is interpreted as "PORTIONS OR FRACTIONS OF ONE HUNDRED PARTS".

That said, you have a lot of numbers there. Can you translate that into english
EXAMPLE:
"With an increase of overall Photovoltaic Solar energy, we will be able to reduce Natural Gas commercial power generation, and therefore make this percentage available for vehicular fleets. That in turn will reduce the need for imported oil products by an equal percentage."

The Pickens Plan explains this in laymans terms for %22 of the total national electrical demand to be converted to Wind generated power replacing an equivalent of %22 Natural Gas requirements eslewhere, which in turn reduce the total oil byproducts required for vehicular fuel amounting to the entire $700 billion annual American import imbalance.

I am not knocking your statistics above, merely asking for an explanation anyone here can take to the consumer public.

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