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By Anton Caputo and Tracy Idell Hamilton - Express-News

With CPS Energy's nuclear expansion plans on shaky ground, San Antonio soon could be looking for other ways to meet future energy needs.

The nuclear option isn't dead yet — the utility's trustees will learn Monday whether last week's trip to Japan yielded an estimate low enough to win back City Council support. But its prospects have dimmed since news that a $4 billion cost estimate increase had been kept under wraps, leaking out just two days before a crucial council vote on financing.

And while Mayor Julián Castro says he is committed to protecting the utility's investment thus far, depending on what he hears at Monday's utility board meeting, he's ready to walk away from the deal and begin looking at alternatives.

For CPS Energy, which spent the summer touting the nuclear expansion as the most affordable choice, natural gas is the next best option.

At dozens of public meetings across the city, CPS Energy officials had said nuclear energy would cost 8.5 cents per kilo-watt hour, with natural gas coming in at 10.5 cents. The utility estimates wind would cost 12.5 cents, solar 21 cents.

While renewable energy advocates dispute the figures for wind and solar, CPS Energy says they're high in part because they require backup sources of power. But natural gas, unlike wind and solar energy, can generate power 24/7 if needed.

Yet CPS Energy also points out natural gas' weaknesses: its cost has been historically volatile — from highs above $12 per unit to current lows of $3 to $4 — and there are long-held concerns that the supply is declining.

Consensus is growing within the energy industry, however, that new technological advances may have turned conventional wisdom on its head.

New drilling techniques have tapped deposits trapped in shale formations in Texas and elsewhere, prompting some in the industry to brag about a burgeoning “revolution” in natural gas.

Castro, aware of the shifting landscape, has asked CPS Energy to update its natural gas analysis, something utility executives had planned to do by the end of the year, whether or not the city decides to pull the plug on nuclear.

“There's no question that the price of natural gas has fallen significantly in the last year, and it appears that the market may have seen a fundamental shift downward in cost,” Castro said. “I'm pushing CPS to take a strong look at each of the alternatives, including natural gas, which appears to be a smart energy investment.”

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